FXUS64 KAMA 052341

AFDAMA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Amarillo TX

641 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



Showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms are possible today

and tomorrow for the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas

Panhandle. Rain totals should stay fairly light across the area.



Sub-freezing temperatures are expected in the Oklahoma Panhandle and

northern Texas Panhandle Thursday morning. A Freeze Watch remains

in effect for these areas.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Wednesday night)

Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



Highs will struggle to rise above 70 degrees for many areas today

due to the front moving further south than previous models had

suggested. PoPs will still remain largely northern focused for the

next couple of days. However, some CAMs attempt to put an isolated

shower or two into parts of the central Texas Panhandle tonight

and tomorrow evening. QPF will still be light overall for the rain

event. The best chances for accumulation over 0.25" is still in

the west-central Oklahoma Panhandle.



Temperatures remain cool overall heading into Wednesday. Lows in 

the morning will approach freezing in the north, while staying 

around 40 degrees for the rest of the area. Highs may not escape 

the 40s for our northern zones, while 50s and 60s remain in play 

for the rest of the area. Some 70s cannot be ruled out for the far

southern Texas Panhandle where cloud coverage will erode quicker 

there compared to the rest of the CWA. In the far northwestern 

combined Panhandles, moisture and temperature profiles are 

supportive of snow during the late afternoon and evening. However,

surface and soil temperatures should remain too warm for

accumulation to occur; therefore, no impacts are expected.



Rangel



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Thursday through next Monday)

Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



Sub-freezing temperatures are still forecast for the Oklahoma

Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle Thursday morning.

Temperatures as low as 25 degrees are expected in parts of

Cimarron and Dallam county. Temperatures will undergo a quick

recovery and continue to warm up through the end of the week. By

Sunday our next cold front will arrive and place highs back in the

70s and 80s. Next week, the upper ridge is forecast to redevelop

over the region. Long range model trends continue to support

unusually warm temperatures for this time of year. 



Rangel



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



As of this evening, latest radar has seen showers begin moving

in from our west with potential for KDHT and KGUY to see impacts

by later tonight. At this time CAMs are not showing too much in

terms of instability so potential for lightened has stayed low 

with no current mention in the present TAF package. As for KAMA, 

present CAMS have impacts from showers are very minor to non- 

existent with concerns more focused on the potential for MVFR to 

IFR CIGs during the overnight. These CIGs will also apply to our 

northern TAFs site, through confidence in them may waver should 

showers hold.



&&



.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning 

     for TXZ001>004-006.



OK...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning 

     for OKZ001>003.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...55

LONG TERM....55

AVIATION...11