FXUS64 KAMA 042327 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 627 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions continue today. Brief, low-end critical fire weather conditions cannot be ruled out. Showers are expected late Tuesday into Wednesday, with relatively higher confidence in the northern Panhandles. There is a low chance for isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Frost or freeze conditions will be possible Wednesday night across the central and northern Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Warm temperatures continue as forecast for today. A few locations in the southern Texas Panhandle have already hit 90 degrees and additional locations in our eastern zones are expected to follow suite. Elevated fire weather conditions also persist this afternoon due to breezy, westerly winds and low minimum relative humidity. Based off of our maximum RFTI values and ERC Percentiles, conditions are near-critical for areas in the southern Texas Panhandle; however, criteria is still not being met for a Red Flag Warning. Tonight, the cold front is expected to move in quicker than previous model runs have suggest. Surface winds have been increase for Tuesday 1 AM to 7 PM, and maximum temperatures have been adjusted down for the CWA. The majority of the region should be in the 60's range for temperatures tomorrow, but the southern Texas Panhandle should still be in the 70's once the front stalls out and retreats back into that zone during the afternoon. PoPs continue to be cut through the Day 2 period, but the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle is still most favored to receive precipitation through this time frame. QPF still isn't impressive for those areas, but our northwest zones may still manage to accumulate at least 0.25". Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 No major changes have been made to the long term period. PoPs continue to bleed into the Wednesday time frame. New model data still is not favorable for PoPs to increase from their current values. Once CAMs are incorporated, we may see a continued decrease in QPF. For now they have been accepted. Highs will rebound after our cool down on Wednesday. Freeze potential is still favorable for our northwest zones Thursday morning. The bias-corrected models are still lower that the raw data, but even the 00Z LREF displays a 42% for temperatures to range between 30 to 35 degrees. Friday onward, anticipate above average temperatures to continue for the rest of the period. On Sunday, our next cold front should arrive, but temperatures may only drop back down to average values for the season. Rangel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 As of early this evening, latest satellite continues to see scatter to broken cloud decks present over the Panhandles with present expection to hold through the overnight. Thankfully current observations have see CIGs hold at VFR levels with current models expecting that to last through tonight. However, the expected frontal passage during the early morning hours of Wednesday may seeing CIGs briefly turn MVFR along side some light showers that may pass through our north. Currently confidence in this actually occurring is on the low end, with chances mostly focused around KDHT and KGUY. Regardless, some breezy northerly winds are expected to follow behind this front during the early morning hours that could lead to gusts upwards of 25 to 30kts. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...11