FXUS63 KUNR 250949 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 349 AM MDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather conditions expected for today and Sunday - Cooler and unsettled weather moving in Sunday night through Monday && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday) Issued at 336 AM MDT Sat Oct 25 2025 08z upper air analysis and water vapor imagery has upper level ridge axis centered over the Northern Plains with upper level low to the south over TX/NM/OK. An upper trof is currently pushing its way onshore into the west coast. Skies over the CWA are mostly clear save for some fog in southern Tripp County. Temperatures are in the upper 30s to 40s for much of the area, though downsloping is keeping things on the eastern slopes of the Black Hills warmer with temperatures still in the mid 50s. The upper ridge will linger over the region today with return flow supporting temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Tightening sfc pressure gradient facilitated by development of a sfc lee trof will support breezy southerly winds across the region. The warm, dry, and breezy weather will result in elevated to near critical fire wx concerns. More details in the Fire Wx discussion. Strong lead shortwave and associated cold front progged to push through the region overnight Sunday/early Monday morning. Models have been trending stronger with more available moisture with this system. Chances for showers will increase through the afternoon Sunday with the best chances for precip being in the overnight hours as strong Q-vector convergence and ample moisture coincide over the CWA. The higher elevations of the Black Hills should be cold enough to see snow as this system pushes through with some spots potentially seeing light accumulations of up to an inch or two. More uncertainty with if the lower elevations in the foothills will see any snow. GFS thermal profiles support snow over Rapid City early Monday morning but NAM profiles are still too warm. Either way, it's looking more and more likely that much of the CWA will see wetting precip with LREF probs painting 60-70% chances for 0.1+" QPF over much of the region by Monday evening. Upper level shortwave will transition to upper low as it pushes east of the Dakotas late Monday into Tuesday. In its wake, weak upper level ridge will build into the region with drier weather and seasonable temperatures for the mid week. Deterministic guidance is showing signal for system moving through late in the week, though run-to-run consistency on strength and timing is lacking. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued At 336 AM MDT Sat Oct 25 2025 VFR conditions prevail over much of the area with the exception of some fog/low stratus and associated MVFR/IFR conditions over southern Tripp County. Fog should clear out after sunrise. Skies will remain mostly clear with the occasional high level cirrus. Breezy southerly winds will develop later this morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 336 AM MDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Warm, dry, and breezy conditions today will lead to elevated to near critical fire weather conditions over much of western SD into northeastern WY. Southerly winds will gradually strengthen through this morning into this afternoon with sustained winds of 10-20 mph and gusts of up to 30 mph. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s while RHs will drop to 15 to 25% across much of the area. This will lead to the development of widespread elevated to near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Overnight humidities will recover to 40 to 60% across northeastern WY into the Black Hills and western SD with southerly winds remaining gusty through the overnight hours. Breezy conditions persist through Sunday with winds shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected. Afternoon temperatures will reach into the 60s to low 70s with minimum RHs ranging from 20 to 35% across northeastern WY into western SD. This will lead to widespread elevated fire wx concerns Sunday. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong AVIATION...Wong FIRE WEATHER...Wong