FXUS63 KUNR 241711 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1111 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather expected on Saturday and Sunday - Cooler and unsettled weather late Sunday through Monday && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday) Issued at 155 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025 07z analysis and water vapor imagery depicts messy upper level ridge over the central US with upper low centered over the Four Corners region. A weak upper wave is passing far to the north of the CWA with the only weather impacts close to home being a few high clouds over central SD. Otherwise, it's a clear and calm night with temperatures dropping off into the 30s to upper 40s. Another warm and dry day on tap for western SD into northeastern WY as upper level ridging remains over the region. Temperatures will climb into the 60s to low 70s with clear skies and light winds. Upper ridge will begin to break down on Saturday as upper level trof moves into the western CONUS. Winds will begin to pick up Saturday afternoon as sfc pressure gradient tightens with the development of a sfc lee trof. Increasing southerly flow will advect warmer temps into the region with highs Saturday climbing into the 70s, some spots along the eastern foothills of the Black Hills into the adjacent plains may see temperatures climb into the mid 70s by Saturday afternoon. The warm and dry conditions combined with the breezy south winds will lead to elevated fire wx conditions. Upper trof pushes into the Rockies late Saturday into Sunday with lead shortwave and attendant sfc trof/front pushing through the region Sunday afternoon. 3 hr pressure rises of 2-3 mb will lend to breezy conditions Sunday afternoon as the system passes through. Increasing upper level moisture will lead to cloudy skies and cooler conditions Sunday with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Stronger wave rotates around the upper trof late Sunday/early Monday with the better lift and moisture leading to increasing chances for light precip (rain showers over the lower elevations, snow showers over the Black Hills) across much of the CWA Sunday night into Monday. Much of the area should see measurable precip with the LREF grand ensemble painting probs of 60-80% for 24-hr QPF of 0.01+" for noon Sunday to noon Monday. Chances for wetting rains (0.1+") look less promising with LREF probs being at around 20-40% for much of the area. Upper trof will swing to the north out of the region by late Tuesday with another ridge building into the region and bringing drier conditions for the mid week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday) Issued At 1108 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025 VFR conditions prevail across the area through the TAF period. Skies remain mostly clear with the occasional high level cirrus. Winds will be light mainly from the south/west through much of the period. A slight increase in speed is expected to occur Saturday morning, first at KGCC then eventually KRAP. Winds will prevail from the south at around 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots. These winds will persist through the end of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 155 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Elevated fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow afternoon, mainly across northeastern WY into the Black Hills and western SD plains. Afternoon humidities will drop to 20 to 30%. Afternoon temperatures will climb up to the mid 70s along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills and adjacent plains. Winds over the lower elevations of the plains will be from the south at 10 to 20 mph, gusting from 25 to 30 mph. The warm, dry, and breezy conditions will lead to widespread elevated fire weather concerns. Elevated fire weather concerns will return for Sunday, primarily across the Weston County plains into southwestern SD and across the eastern Black Hills and adjacent plains. Afternoon RHs will range from 20-30% with breezy southerly winds shifting to the northwest as a dry front moves through in the mid-afternoon hours. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong AVIATION...Dziewaltowski FIRE WEATHER...Wong