FXUS63 KUNR 060440

AFDUNR



Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY

National Weather Service Rapid City SD

1040 PM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Low impact weather through most of next week



&&



.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)

Issued at 1247 PM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025



18z surface analysis had weak anticyclone over the CWA creating 

sunny skies (save for a few CU per 0.5km visible satellite 

matinee). Water vapour loop had northwest flow over the CWA. Low 

impact weather expected through most of next week.



Tonight/Sunday, weak moisture-starved shortwave will bring some 

mid/high clouds through the CWA later tonight/Sunday as upper 

ridge builds into the northern Plains. Weak warm air advection 

portends temperatures ~10F warmer than today for Sunday. Behind 

this wave late Sunday night/Monday, a weak back door cool front 

slides southwest onto the western SD plains. Expect slightly 

cooler temperatures behind the front as well as a small chance of 

fog/stratus early Monday per weak low level upslope flow.



Tuesday/Wednesday, upper trough moves across the northern plains,

dropping a weak front through the CWA late Tuesday with some 

showers. Moisture of Pacific origin with most folks seeing less 

than 0.1" QPF, save for the northern Black Hills where 0.25" 

possible (~30% chance per NBM, ~10% chance LREF). Some snow 

possible very high. Weak buoyancy Tuesday afternoon may bring a 

few lightning strikes just ahead of the front. Temperatures 

remain mild.



Mild/mostly dry weather then expected for the end of the 

week/next weekend as temperatures perk up again, potentially 

reaching 15-25F+ above normal.



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night)

Issued At 1040 PM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025



VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.



&&



.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

WY...None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson

AVIATION...Pojorlie