FXUS63 KUNR 031011

AFDUNR



Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY

National Weather Service Rapid City SD

311 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light snow over the northern Black Hills today with

  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches for most spots



- Above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions through

  this weekend



&&



.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)

Issued at 310 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026



Current upper air analysis has upper level ridge axis over the 

West Coast with broad troughing over the eastern half of the US. 

Upper level wave is making its way across eastern MT/southern AB. 

Closer to home, nighttime microphysics imagery depicts area of low

clouds/fog across much of western SD. Have added patchy fog 

mention to the forecast for northwestern SD after looking at 

webcams and airport obs in the area. While the low stratus will 

likely make it to the Black Hills through early this morning, not 

expecting any fog.



Main story today will be the potential for accumulating snow in 

the northern Black Hills. Aforementioned upper wave will cross the

region today. Adequate moisture and modest forcing will support 

light precip over much of northeastern WY into western SD. Precip 

should move in early this morning with temperatures cold enough 

for snow to fall. As we warm up through the day, snow will 

transition to rain across the lower elevations of the plains but 

the Black Hills should remain cold enough for snow. The moist, 

northwest flow will support upslope snow over the northern Black 

Hills. In terms of how much snow, models have come down a bit on 

the QPF and thus the snow totals. In addition, this snow will be 

falling during the day with daytime temperatures at or slightly 

below the freezing mark. Therefore have knocked down snow totals 

slightly. Much of the northern Black Hills should see at least an 

inch of snow with the higher elevations seeing up to 3 to 5 

inches. Given the limited coverage of the higher snow totals, 

opted to not issue a Winter Weather Advisory.



After today, the upper level ridge over the western US will 

continue to influence weather over our neck of the woods into this

weekend. High temperatures across much of the CWA will be 10-20F 

above average with slightly cooler conditions towards central SD. 

Thursday's looking to be particularly warm with highs climbing 

into the 60s over the western SD plains.



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night)

Issued At 1003 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026



A quasi-stationary front stretches from SW ND through south-

central SD with MVFR/IFR conditions developing in low clouds with

some areas of patchy fog. These low clouds are slowly pushing

westward with a low chance of impacting KRAP, although have kept 

them out of the forecast with the 06z TAFs.



An approaching system will push through NE WY and NW SD after 12z,

bringing light snow to the area with MVFR/IFR conditions,

particularly in the Black Hills and across NW SD. Lingering IFR

conditions along the front across south-central SD near the end of

the forecast period into early Wednesday morning.



&&



.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

WY...None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong

AVIATION...SE