FXUS63 KTOP 250851 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 351 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light showers and cloudy skies remain in place today with the highest chances for showers generally along and south of I-70. - Progressive pattern remains in place with another cold front and upper level system moving into the area Monday night into Tuesday with rain chances ranging between 40-60%. - Overall temperatures remain below normal until next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Early this morning, 08Z satellite and radar show the upper level system moving out of the southwestern CONUS continues to very slowly work east into the southern Plains region. The northern flank of this system will continue to influence the weather across the local forecast area today and into this evening before finally moving east of the area into Sunday. Overall, wind fields remain weak with this system but the best advection and convergence around the H85 level remains into northern OK and southern KS areas. Deeper moisture also resides across these areas with an axis of higher PW air in place extending into central KS. Weak overall isentropic ascent is supporting a few light showers along the hwy 36 corridor into northern central KS areas. The dewpoints drop off meaningfully east of the Manhattan area helping to keep lower cloud bases in place over western forecast zones due to a more saturated atmospheric profile across these areas. A few areas may develop fog this morning over north central KS but the best setup for fog with the clouds in place all last evening and overnight, along with a light breeze, appear to be further west and northwest of the area that can see more gradual upslope influences. Expecting our lower periods of visibility today to be due to the periods of precipitation for the most part. Still expect a gradual shift east of the moist axis over the next several hours into this afternoon before the system pulls east of the area tonight into Sunday. Therefore, expect chances for light showers to increase steadily through the late morning hours into the afternoon to around 60%. Instability is very minimal to non- existent to any meaningful depth and appears to remain below the freezing level today across much of the area. Additionally the northern sector of this type of system is not typically favorable for lightning to develop. Thus, have left chances for thunder today below 5% with the perhaps an hour or two window where a rouge strike may occur over far southern east-central areas. Appears to be non- zero chance but not a favorable setup today so outdoor events appear to have to deal with mainly a cloudy and cool day again today. Cluster ensembles suggest the Pacific trough over the northwest dives into the area as the system deepens east of the Rockies increasing the precipitation chances to 40-60% during the late Monday into Tuesday period. Periods of rain may linger into Wednesday morning over eastern areas before a narrow ridge moves into the area for Thursday which should be a nice day with clearing skies and warming daytime temperatures approaching closer to normal. The balance of the forecast period appears to favor northern stream flow residing across the northern tier of the CONUS with rising heights associated with a broad low amplitude ridge setting up across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS. This should help bump temperatures to around or slightly above normal by next weekend if the forecast holds. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 The track of the upper low responsible for the weather across the region slowly meanders east through the period. Deeper moisture remains over south-central into central Kansas impacting the KMHK terminal more so regarding IFR Cig/Vis to begin this period. Do expect deeper moisture to steadily build into eastern terminals as well into the early morning hours helping Cigs to fall to IFR which should last through much of the period once it sets in. Some guidance suggests LIFR conditions develop but not expecting this as the predominate category. Expect -SHRA to lift north slowly and set up across the area by late morning into the afternoon. Winds remain from the ESE generally below 10kts through the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Drake