FXUS63 KTOP 250540

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1240 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Overcast skies and occasional showers are expected to stick around

  into Sunday. 



- Another frontal system is expected to move through Monday night 

  and Tuesday with a chance for rain. 



- Cool temperatures should remain in place through next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



19Z water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low over the central 

Rockies with an upper trough off the northwest coast. Surface obs 

showed a low over the southern high plains with an inverted trough 

into central KS. Southerly winds at 925MB and 850MB were advecting 

moisture north into the region. 



There is good agreement from the models in the handling of the storm 

system tonight through the weekend. The upper low is expected to 

propagate east along the KS/OK state line through Sunday keeping the 

forecast area on the north and cooler side of the system. This 

should keep overcast skies and occasional showers in place into 

Saturday night. As the system begins to move east Sunday, increasing 

subsidence is progged to limit chances for rain to maybe a few 

isolated showers in the morning. Low and mid level lapse rates are 

expected to remain in the 5 to 6 C/km range limiting the potential 

for thunder to around 5 percent. Easterly winds and overcast skies 

are forecast to limit much of a diurnal change in temperature with 

lows around 50 and highs in the middle and upper 50s expected 

through the weekend. 



A shortwave trough is progged to move through the central plains 

within a northwest flow Monday and Tuesday. 12Z guidance has trended 

towards closing off the shortwave just east of the forecast area on 

Tuesday, which has implications for a slower progression to the 

pattern next week. In any case another frontal system should move 

through the area Monday night and Tuesday with a chance for showers. 

The NBM initialization appears reasonable with 30 to 40 percent 

chances late Monday night and Tuesday. 



A second shortwave may move through the central U.S. towards the end 

of the forecast period. Northwest flow is expected to limit the 

opportunity for moisture return from the gulf, so models keep a dry 

forecast through the end of the week. There doesn't look to be any 

strong warm air advection through next week, so temperatures are 

forecast to remain quite fall like with highs around 60. The 

ensembles indicate an increasing probability for freezing 

temperatures Thursday or Friday. For now lows are forecast to remain 

in the middle and upper 30s to end the week.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



The track of the upper low responsible for the weather across

the region slowly meanders east through the period. Deeper 

moisture remains over south-central into central Kansas 

impacting the KMHK terminal more so regarding IFR Cig/Vis to

begin this period. Do expect deeper moisture to steadily build 

into eastern terminals as well into the early morning hours 

helping Cigs to fall to IFR which should last through much of 

the period once it sets in. Some guidance suggests LIFR

conditions develop but not expecting this as the predominate

category. Expect -SHRA to lift north slowly and set up across 

the area by late morning into the afternoon. Winds remain from 

the ESE generally below 10kts through the period.



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Wolters

AVIATION...Drake