FXUS63 KTOP 241141 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 641 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms work from west to east across the area this morning and taper off into the afternoon (60- 80% chance south of Hwy 36 with around 40% chance along the Hwy 36 corridor). - Another round of rain possible focused mainly early Saturday morning into early afternoon with similar chances as this morning's weather system. - Off and on smaller rain chances into the early part of the upcoming work week generally 30-40%. - Expect generally cooler than normal temperatures through the upcoming week with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Early this morning, water vapor imagery shows a broad trough over eastern Canada with axis extending into the mid-Atlantic region. A weak ridge is in place across the Dakotas with another Pacific trough working into the northwestern CONUS. A filling upper level low continues to spin and meander east out of the Desert Southwest region. Based on surface observations a weakly defined warm front appears to be situated across northeastern OK into south-central Kansas at this hour ahead of the upper low to the west. This morning a precipitation shield associated with a weak lead shortwave has developed north of the warm front with a few elevated non-severe thunderstorms working across central into south-central Kansas with the deepest moist plume and associated weak instability with MUCAPES around 1000 J/kg. Expect showers along with a few short- lived embedded thunderstorms to last through this morning before tapering off into the this afternoon as the weak wave works across the area and generally de-amplifies. The most intense precipitation appears to be associated with a weak convergent zone along the nose of a weak LLJ resulting in WAA isentropic responses along the 300K surface. Expect non-severe thunderstorms if they do occur over any given location with mostly beneficial rain. The upper low to the west begins to work further east into Saturday morning bringing another chance for rain to the area. The highest rain chances may focus over southern areas as the overall system weakens further into tomorrow and may transition into more of an open wave as a more progressive pattern takes shape into early next week with several Pacific troughs working along the northern tier of the CONUS with generally quasi-zonal to slight northwest flow across the central Plains. This will bring a few off and on low end rain chances through early next week and lower overall heights helping to keep lower temperatures reinforced with dry conditions again mid to late week into early next weekend. It appears at this time most long- range solutions favor a similar general outcome, so confidence at the current time appears to be good with a cooler pattern setting up through the week along with the strongest forcing for ascent generally north and east of the region helping to keep the trend for dry conditions by the end of the week also a medium or generally good confidence scenario. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Showers have been steadily building in from west to east and will continue over the next several hours through around midday before tapering off. CIGs have been slow to lower. Still expecting IFR CIGS into this morning over western areas then more widespread by this evening into the overnight period. Some brief lightning strikes have occurred near KMHK but have been random and brief so kept mention of TS out of the forecast with instability limited this far north. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Drake