FXUS63 KTOP 240547

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1247 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Showers move in late tonight and become widespread through most of 

Friday. There should be some breaks in the rain Friday evening/night 

before another push into Saturday morning.



- Rain largely comes to an end Sunday with low-end rain chances 

returning next week.



- Temperatures turn cooler Friday and look to remain slightly

  below average through much of next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025



Mid-level water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows some 

moisture streaming into the Southern and Central Plains, coming out 

of the upper low over the Four Corners region. A sfc low has begun 

to develop in CO in response to that system. High clouds are noted 

on satellite over the TX/OK panhandles into southwestern KS, which 

could continue to make their way northeastward into this evening. A 

modest LLJ looks to develop in central KS between 03-06Z tonight, 

which should help provide some enhanced lift within the WAA regime, 

leading to the development of showers in parts of east central KS 

later this evening. Rain overspreads the area overnight into Friday 

morning as isentropic lift strengthens. Overall, instability looks 

limited with meager lapse rates, but a few small pockets of 500+ 

J/kg MUCAPE could be enough for isolated embedded thunderstorms. 

CAMs show the bulk of the rain impacting the area through the 

morning and decreasing in coverage late Friday afternoon. Most of 

the area may be dry Friday evening into the overnight as coverage 

becomes more isolated to widely scattered. 



Heading into Saturday morning, the position of the 850mb low places 

the area in a location favorable for another push of moisture 

northward within the warm conveyor belt. This leads to another round 

of rain moving from south to north during the morning hours of 

Saturday. Elevated instability really drops off during the day, so 

mainly showers are expected by this time. Rain should gradually 

taper off through the evening and especially into Sunday morning as 

the low moves far enough east to place us in the area of subsidence 

behind the wave.



There should be a dry period early next week behind the departing 

system, but it looks short-lived with the next upper trough not far 

behind. There are notable timing differences with the associated 

front, which at this time looks to move through sometime during the 

first half of the day Tuesday. 



Temperatures overall look to remain cool into next week. Highs in 

the 50s are expected Friday and Saturday with the widespread clouds 

and rain. Some low 60s may be possible into early next week, but 

differences in timing and evolution of next week's system leads to 

lower confidence in details like cloud cover and rain chances, which 

could then have an impact on temperatures.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



No significant changes to the current forecast thinking. Over

the next few hours, expect more complete saturation to take

place from west to east. Steady rain should result into the

early morning hours with intensity increasing near sunrise

through mid to late morning. Winds remain easterly and may

increase above 10kts into the afternoon after the rain clears to

the east. Expect periods of IFR to develop and may lower to LIFR

during the heaviest rainfall. Very weak instability looks to be

in place this far north, so have kept mention of thunder

generally south of the terminals.  



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Picha

AVIATION...Drake