FXUS63 KTOP 210828

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

328 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Below-average temperatures expected through the work week with 

highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.



- Dry conditions are expected until late Wednesday into Thursday with

  more precipitation chances by the weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



A cloudy but much cooler start to the week is underway across 

eastern Kansas with below-average temperatures expected for the 

remainder of the work week. Today and Tuesday's conditions will 

largely be influenced by the large upper low that is progged to 

moved across Nebraska and Iowa. Ensemble guidance keeps a strong 

surface high across the northern Plains and Midwest with continuous 

CAA for today and Tuesday. Ample cloud cover and CAA will keep 

temperatures pleasant and well below-average, topping out in the 

upper 60s. 



A subtle pattern change comes Wednesday as the low-level ridge axis 

passes east of Kansas and returns low-level flow back towards the 

south. Drier and clearer conditions are expected by the afternoon 

and should promote temperatures returning to the mid to upper 70s. 

By Wednesday evening into Thursday, rain chances begin to increase 

as vorticity advection on the western side of the upper ridge moves 

north into Kansas. Best forcing looks to remain across western and 

central Kansas so expectations are for the highest chances for 

rainfall Wednesday night and Thursday to remain there. Thursday into 

Friday will see the upper ridge compress and get shunted back 

towards the Gulf as troughing approaches from the west. This should 

usher in better PVA across all of eastern Kansas and in turn, rain 

and storm chances. Multiple waves pass over the central Plains into 

the weekend keeps scattered chances of rain/storms across the 

forecast area with temperatures creeping back towards averages for 

this time of year. 



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



TAFs will be focused around MVFR and IFR CIGs for majority of the

period. IFR ceilings are expected during the early morning hours of

Monday before lifting back towards MVFR status. Some MVFR

visibilities may also try to move in early this morning at KTOP, but

should not fall much below 4 miles. By Monday afternoon, deeper 

mixing out towards KMHK should help to bring in a period of VFR 

stratus towards the terminal so added mention of that scenario. 

Further east at KTOP and KFOE, higher low-level moisture should keep

around MVFR CIGs through the period.



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Griesemer

AVIATION...Griesemer