FXUS63 KTOP 200857 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 357 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot for March. Record highs today and tomorrow, with temperatures tomorrows reaching the 90s. - Slightly cooler Sunday into next week, but still above average. - Dry pattern continues. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 The pattern for the next week will be dominated by an extremely strong upper ridge currently centered over Arizona. 0 UTC upper air observations across the western CONUS depicted 500 mb heights and mid-level temperatures surpassing monthly records by large margins. The influence of this ridge will result in record breaking temperatures here as well over the next couple days, as deep mixing of the very warm and dry airmass occurs. Highs will reach the upper 80s to around 90 today, and low to even mid 90s tomorrow for the entire area. For more information on the context of the heat as well as its impact on fire danger, see the Climate and Fire Weather sections below. By early Sunday, the ridge will flatten a bit as a shortwave trough moves across the northern Plains, sending a cold front southward through the area. Winds will turn northerly and gusty behind the front, with temperatures staying closer to 70 near the Nebraska border but still near 80 across east-central KS. Even with the ridge to our southwest slightly weakened, its influence will still keep temperatures generally above average. Monday will be the coolest day, with highs in the low 60s, but we warm back into the 70s by Wednesday. The dry pattern will also continue as the ridge remains in charge. No notable rain chances through at least Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the period, with light winds gradually veering to the northwest mid-day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Updated at 356 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Fire Weather Watch remains in place for Saturday and Sunday. While winds will stay generally below 10 mph today, hot temperatures and low dewpoints will drop relative humidity into the 12-20% range across most of the area. This will result in very high fire danger. Even with the light winds, there will be a minor wind shift moving through mid-day that will swing winds from more southwesterly to more north-northwesterly. Saturday and Sunday will see a more notable fire risk, with the Rangeland Fire Index likely reaching extreme both days. Similar to today, RH will fall into the 12-20 percent range in the afternoon as temperatures climb into the low 90s. Southwest winds will be stronger than today, sustained 10-15 mph and gusting as much as 20- 25 mph. For Sunday, slightly cooler temperatures behind a front will keep RH a bit higher, generally 25-30% during the afternoon. However north winds behind the front will be stronger, sustained 20-25 mph and gusting up to 30-35 mph. Despite some very initial green-up in spots, most grasses and other fine fuels remain dry and cured, and very receptive to fire spread according to local land managers. && .CLIMATE... Updated at 356 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 March 20 - Record High Temperature Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 85 (1953) 87 Concordia 83 (1916, 1934, 2011) 86 March 21 - Record High Temperature Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 91 (1907, 1916) 92 Concordia 97 (1907) 91 March Monthly Record High Topeka: 93 on March 22, 1907 and March 31, 1946 Concordia: 97 on March 21, 1907 In a more obscure climate stat - the forecast of 92 on Saturday would be an 82 degree swing from the low of 10 Mondaymorning. This would be tied for the 4th largest swing in temperatures within a one week (or less) period, and the only one week period on record to see a low of 15 or less and a high of 90 or more. The two most similar temperature swings also occurred in March. An 88 degree rise from -4 on March 8, 1967 to 84 on March 10, 1967 is the most extreme warming on record at TOP. More recently in 2009, the temperature rose from 9 degrees on March 2 to 86 on March 5. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021- KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038- KSZ039-KSZ054-KSZ055. && $$ DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Reese CLIMATE...Jones/Reese