FXUS63 KTOP 200517

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1217 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Strong to severe storms possible into early this evening

  mainly over north-central into east-central areas. Could 

  still see some stronger wind gusts to 60-70 with the most 

  intense updrafts as they collapse over any given area.



- Storms this afternoon into early evening will also bring brief

  heavy rain to those who see a storm. Could see short-term

  street flooding. 



- Drying trend in place Wednesday through the balance of the

  week with slightly cooler temperatures. 



- A more meaningful front pushes into the the area late Friday

  bringing cooler temperatures into the weekend and early next

  week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



Organized Westerly flow remain north of the area mainly along the 

US/Canadian border. A ridge remains in place over the western CONUS. 

Mesocale features rule the day across the forecast area. A weak MCV 

continues to influence the weather over central Kansas areas in 

concert with remnant outflow boundaries from overnight convection. A 

weak synoptic boundary mostly stationary and appears to be stretched 

across the Hwy 36 corridor. Storms this afternoon formed around 

midday along the primary outflow across north-central KS. A couple 

microburst caused brief winds of around 60-70mph based on damage 

reports mostly from tree damage. Heavy rain also caused quick 

responses leading to street flooding across the Junction City area. 

Another cluster of storms continues to form generally over Ottawa 

county and is slow to move with lack of steering flow and a low 

shear environment in place. The typical hot August inverted-V 

sounding is in place and steep mid-level lapse rates will allow for 

a few strong updrafts to potentially re-form across north-central 

into east-central areas through early this evening. Can't rule out 

another microburst or two should updrafts become tall and persist 

long enough to collapse and cause more damaging wind across any 

given area. This threat appears to greatly diminish into sunset this 

evening.



Forecast consistency remains with a more meaningful cold front 

entering the area late Friday. Ensemble data favoring a cooler 

airmass entering the region by the weekend into early next week. 

Morning showers and storms may be possible as the lower level the 

cooler surface ridge pushes into the area generally focused over 

north-central into central Kansas areas. Look for high temperatures 

to cool into the 70s by Sunday into early next week.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025



Will be watching for ground fog development as the clouds

continue to clear out this morning. Forecast soundings show the

boundary layer mixing by 14Z so FG shouldn't last long if it

develops. A CU field is expected to develop by early afternoon

with bases at 5 to 6 KFT. There may be enough instability for an

isolated SHRA to develop as well. But coverage is expected to be

less than 20 percent so will not include in the forecast.

Overall VFR conditions should prevail once any fog lifts with a

light east to northeast wind at the surface. 



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Drake

AVIATION...Wolters