FXUS63 KTOP 191943

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

243 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Strong to severe storms possible into early this evening

  mainly over north-central into east-central areas. Could 

  still see some stronger wind gusts to 60-70 with the most 

  intense updrafts as they collapse over any given area.



- Storms this afternoon into early evening will also bring brief

  heavy rain to those who see a storm. Could see short-term

  street flooding. 



- Drying trend in place Wednesday through the balance of the

  week with slightly cooler temperatures. 



- A more meaningful front pushes into the the area late Friday

  bringing cooler temperatures into the weekend and early next

  week. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



Organized Westerly flow remain north of the area mainly along the 

US/Canadian border. A ridge remains in place over the western CONUS. 

Mesocale features rule the day across the forecast area. A weak MCV 

continues to influence the weather over central Kansas areas in 

concert with remnant outflow boundaries from overnight convection. A 

weak synoptic boundary mostly stationary and appears to be stretched 

across the Hwy 36 corridor. Storms this afternoon formed around 

midday along the primary outflow across north-central KS. A couple 

microburst caused brief winds of around 60-70mph based on damage 

reports mostly from tree damage. Heavy rain also caused quick 

responses leading to street flooding across the Junction City area. 

Another cluster of storms continues to form generally over Ottawa 

county and is slow to move with lack of steering flow and a low 

shear environment in place. The typical hot August inverted-V 

sounding is in place and steep mid-level lapse rates will allow for 

a few strong updrafts to potentially re-form across north-central 

into east-central areas through early this evening. Can't rule out 

another microburst or two should updrafts become tall and persist 

long enough to collapse and cause more damaging wind across any 

given area. This threat appears to greatly diminish into sunset this 

evening.



Forecast consistency remains with a more meaningful cold front 

entering the area late Friday. Ensemble data favoring a cooler 

airmass entering the region by the weekend into early next week. 

Morning showers and storms may be possible as the lower level the 

cooler surface ridge pushes into the area generally focused over 

north-central into central Kansas areas. Look for high temperatures 

to cool into the 70s by Sunday into early next week. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



A cluster of storms has developed mainly southwest of KMHK but

the terminal will remain close enough to the general initiation

area for storms that a PROB30 is warranted for the afternoon.

Expect that by early this evening the overall best threat area

for storms becomes focused south of the terminals. KTOP/KFOE are

still north of the obvious outflow boundaries but still can't

rule out that there may be a chance this afternoon for storms to

develop over the eastern terminals as well. The chance remains

low enough to keep mention of storms out for now with no

immediate cu field developing suggesting the inhibition may be

stronger over the eastern terminals. Will continue to monitor

and amend if the threat appears to suggest mention of TS is

needed. Expect VFR conditions outside of TS for the the period.



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Drake

AVIATION...Drake