FXUS63 KTOP 190530 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1230 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm weather continues through this week, approaching record warmth Friday and Saturday - Elevated fire danger each day through Sunday, especially this weekend - Brief cool-down early next week, then quickly warming again && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Little change to the synoptic pattern has occurred over the last 12 hours with the upper ridge parked over the southwestern CONUS, leaving us in northwest flow. There is just enough energy and moisture rounding this ridge aloft to give us some patches of cirrus at times today. At the surface, a weak troughing pattern has moved into the area, keeping winds light. Despite the light winds, the downslope component and insolation have both helped boost our temperatures into the 70s this afternoon and have trended warmer than most guidance. As such, have bumped up tomorrow's highs slightly as well, anticipating that trend will continue with mid- level heights increasing. As the upper ridge builds east, temperatures only continue their upward trend through Friday and Saturday with widespread 80s Friday and some 90-degree readings becoming a reasonable possibility on Saturday (20-50%). Temperatures this warm along with a dry air mass are expected to contribute to low RH with increased fire weather concerns into the weekend (see fire discussion for further details). By Saturday night and especially Sunday, the upper ridge flattens and gets pushed south due to a passing shortwave across the northern tier of the US. This will bring a cold front southward sometime on Sunday, though there are still notable timing differences with its passage which leads to larger spreads in high temperatures, especially for southernmost portions of the area. The GFS remains on the slower side of the guidance, which would allow for more warming before CAA takes over behind the front. If the faster solutions hold, then east central KS would end up cooler than currently forecast. In any case, relatively cooler temperatures in the 50s are anticipated by Monday, which is closer to average for mid-March. The upper ridge then looks to build back north, favoring a return to warmer temperatures by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Dry air and no moisture advection to speak of is expected to keep VFR conditions in place with winds generally 10KT or less. && .FIRE WEATHER... Updated at 250 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 With temperatures trending warmer and dew points trending drier, that only helps to increase confidence in having elevated fire danger for portions of the area through the end of the week. Thursday has minimum RH forecast between 20-35%, but could still be lower if the warmer/drier trend continues further. Friday and Saturday in particular have the lowest RH values (15-30%), with winds being the main limiting factor through the end of this week. They should remain under 15mph through Friday, with Saturday bringing some gusts near 20mph in north central KS during the afternoon. Sunday still has plenty of uncertainty due to variability in timing of the cold front, but will need to be monitored. Even if the front does pass earlier and keep RH a bit higher, the winds are expected to increase and shift to the north with 25-35mph gusts. This could compound any issues that may arise Friday/Saturday with the drier air mass. && .CLIMATE... Updated at 250 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Record High Temperature for March 20 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 85 (1953) 85 Concordia 83 (1916, 1934, 2011) 86 Record High Temperature for March 21 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 91 (1907, 1916) 87 Concordia 97 (1907) 89 Record Highest Minimum Temperature for March 20 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 56 (2012) 51 Concordia 50 (1894, 1935, 2011) 50 && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...Wolters FIRE WEATHER...Picha CLIMATE...Flanagan/Picha