FXUS63 KTOP 071104 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 604 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures fall near or below freezing again Tuesday morning. Any early season sensitive vegetation may be damaged. - Gradually warming up this week with above normal temperatures Tuesday through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 413 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Early this morning, the upper air pattern across the CONUS shows a positively tilted longwave trough slowly pushing east of the region. A sharp mid to upper level ridge is setup from the northern Plains through the Desert Southwest region with another Pacific trough advancing into the Pacific northwest region. Across the local area, temperatures are generally in the mid to low 30s with a an upper 20 reading or two at low lying aviation sites. The Freeze warning remain in effect early this morning with just the watch maintained for tomorrow due to some uncertainty with how far east and northeast the surface ridge will be setup. This could allow for just enough mixing on the western return flow side to keep temperatures slightly higher over central into north central areas into Tuesday morning. For now, the watch is still area-wide. Wednesday into Thursday, northwest flow brings a clipper system through the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. No changes in the thinking with this system overall. Ensemble data suggest that a trace to less than a tenth of an inch of light rain may setup over far northeastern into far east-central areas. Bottom line, don't expect widespread or significant rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday period as even 90th percentile data show generally less than a 20% chance of measurable rainfall and that barely clips the far northeastern and far east central areas for the current 00Z data set. Warm temperatures continue to trend warmer through the week into next weekend. Could see 70s and 80s especially by the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 603 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the period with a northerly wind into the afternoon. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040- KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Drake