FXUS63 KTOP 070529

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1229 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Temperatures fall near or below freezing Monday and Tuesday mornings.

  Any early season sensitive vegetation may be damaged.



- Gradually warming up this week with above normal temperatures 

  Tuesday through the end of the week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025



A positively tilted, longwave trough extends from the Mid-

Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains this afternoon. In the 

wake of this feature, skies have cleared across the forecast area 

with a surface trough across northern Kansas currently. Temperatures 

have warmed into the upper 40s and low 50s from the chilly start 

this morning. The surface trough continues to slide southeast this 

evening, making it southeast of the area by midnight or so. Light 

winds and clear skies within the trough axis will allow for good 

radiational cooling, but low-level winds increase from the southwest 

behind this feature and ahead of a southward advancing cold front. 

The boundary layer may become more mixed during the early morning 

hours Monday and hold temperatures steady or even warm them up a 

couple of degrees before sunrise. Uncertainty remains in how quickly 

temperatures will drop and the degree of mixing within the boundary 

layer, but HREF and NBM probabilities show a 40-80% chance of 

temperatures at or below freezing for a few hours overnight. As a 

result, a Freeze Warning has been issued area-wide as these 

temperatures could damage any early season sensitive vegetation.



The aforementioned cold front pushes south through the area during 

the day on Monday. CAA will be offset by April sunshine, but highs 

will still be a few degrees below normal in the mid 50s to low 60s. 

Surface high pressure builds into the Upper and Middle Mississippi 

Valley Monday night, leading to another night of clear skies and 

initially light winds. The pressure gradient increases from west to 

east during the overnight hours which again could favor more mixing 

and limit how cold temperatures are able to fall. Best chances for 

temperatures at or below freezing will be across eastern portions of 

the CWA in closer proximity to the surface ridge. The Freeze Watch 

has been maintained for the entire area Tuesday morning.



The pressure gradient tightens on Tuesday with breezy southerly 

winds bumping temperatures into the 60s and low 70s. A couple of 

waves dive southeast across the central CONUS on Wednesday and 

Thursday. The majority of associated precipitation is favored to 

remain north and east of the local area, but both the ENS and GEFS 

still decent probabilities (20-40%) of some of this rain clipping 

northeast Kansas. The NBM has lower probabilities (10-20%) for rain, 

but this will likely increase if the signal for rain this far south 

remains consistent. Mid-level ridging takes control of the Central 

Plains Friday through next weekend, keeping above normal 

temperatures in place. Highs may reach or exceed 80 degrees by 

Sunday.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



VFR conditions prevail through the period with a northerly wind

into the afternoon.  



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-

KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-

KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-

KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for 

KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-

KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-

KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Flanagan

AVIATION...Drake