FXUS63 KTOP 041746

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1246 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered thunderstorms expected to develop tonight after sunset. 

A few severe storms possible (30%), with large hail and damaging 

winds the main hazards.



- Much cooler tomorrow and Wednesday behind cold front, with 

occasional periods of rain.



- Gradually warming up again towards the weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Broad confluent flow evident on water vapor imagery this afternoon, 

with one deep upper low dropping southeast over the Northern Plains 

while another spins just offshore California. The northern stream 

low is beginning to push a cold front southward through the area. As 

that occurs this evening, isentropic ascent will increase along and 

north of the boundary, allowing scattered thunderstorms to develop 

within the unstable airmass. Forecast soundings indicate storms will 

likely be a bit high-based and elevated, but in an environment of 

moderate CAPE (1500-2000 J/kg), moderate effective shear (~35 kts), 

and very steep mid-level lapse rates (8-8.5 C/km). So large hail 

potentially up to golf ball size looks to be the main hazard with 

any initially developing storm, followed by some damaging wind 

potential as updrafts become more numerous just along/behind the 

front.



Much cooler air will filter in behind the front overnight. With the 

southern stream upper low still well to our southwest, we'll see a 

longer period of continued isentropic ascent atop the chilly 

airmass. So off and on rain chances look to continue throughout the 

day Tuesday and into Wednesday. Particularly if low clouds can 

linger throughout the day, this will keep temperatures down, with 

highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.



The main trough axis looks to pass off to our east by Thursday, 

bringing in drier and sunnier conditions. This should help us begin 

another warming trend into the weekend ahead of our next upper 

trough. Details with this system are fuzzy 5-6 days out, but in 

generally expect another increase in rain chances as it approaches.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Light winds and VFR conditions will continue this 

afternoon and into the evening. Around 02-04 UTC a cold front will 

begin to push south through the main TAF sites, shifting winds to 

the northeast. A few scattered thunderstorms are also likely to 

develop along the front, most likely in the 03-08 UTC timeframe. 

Ceilings stay generally VFR, though can't rule out some lower 

ceilings late in the period as rain chances begin to increase again.



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Reese

AVIATION...Reese