FXUS63 KTOP 041722

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1222 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Another warm afternoon with storm chances by the evening.



- Some storms may become strong to marginally severe with hail of 1-

1.25" in size and isolated wind gusts to 60 mph.



- Cooler for Tuesday and Wednesday with shower and non-severe storm 

  chances.



- Warmth and mostly dry conditions return by Thursday and into the

  weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows northwesterly flow 

over much of the central Plains and Midwest, ridging moving into the 

4-corners region ahead of a cutoff low over the SoCAL/Baja region 

and the main jetstream over the PNW, pushing moisture into the 

northern Rockies. Influence from embedded mid-level waves in the 

northwesterly flow and mid-level vorticity advection over the 

southern Rockies has deepened a lee surface cyclone over 

southeastern Colorado and western Kansas that has kept weak moisture 

advection across the eastern half of Kansas. 



Through the day today, weak moisture advection will continue across 

far eastern Kansas as both the northern and southwestern cyclones 

approach the central Plains. Widespread warm temperatures topping 

out in the mid 80s will be expected ahead of the surface trough by 

the afternoon hours in eastern Kansas as Tds creep into the mid to 

upper 50s. This should set the stage for late afternoon and early 

evening convective initiation along the surface trough with some 

storms becoming strong to marginally severe. Parameters for stronger 

storms seem to align best across east-central Kansas and Missouri 

where moisture advection will try to erode the EML in place leading 

to MUCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg. Deep shear does not look overly 

impressive - around 30 knots of effective shear - so expecting 

strong and mature cells to maintain a multicellular structure. This 

should keep the main hazards as large hail, up to 1-1.25" in size 

with isolated 60 mph winds gusts. Most strong storms should exit the 

area into Missouri by midnight, but with ample upper-level and low 

level forcing north of the frontal boundary, scattered showers and 

weak convection will continue into the overnight hours and through 

Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and weak thunderstorm chances 

will continue through Wednesday as PVA associated with a newly 

phased trough moves over the Rockies. Additionally, northeast Kansas

will remain on the cool side of the frontal boundary Tuesday and 

Wednesday so severe storm potential will be near zero with highs each

afternoon likely topping out in the upper 50s and low 60s.



The upper-level trough axis passes over the region Thursday morning 

with mid-level heights increasing into the weekend. High temperatures 

return to the 70s for Thursday through Sunday with the next chance 

of widespread precipitation coming Saturday night as a PNW mid-level 

wave advects into the central Plains.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Light winds and VFR conditions will continue this 

afternoon and into the evening. Around 02-04 UTC a cold front will 

begin to push south through the main TAF sites, shifting winds to 

the northeast. A few scattered thunderstorms are also likely to 

develop along the front, most likely in the 03-08 UTC timeframe. 

Ceilings stay generally VFR, though can't rule out some lower 

ceilings late in the period as rain chances begin to increase again.



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Griesemer

AVIATION...Reese