FXUS63 KTOP 032320

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

520 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- There is a low chance (10-20%) for a very light wintry mix in 

  north central KS overnight into Wednesday morning.



- Weather trends warm and dry the rest of the week into early

  next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Water vapor imagery at 20Z continues to show northwest flow aloft 

from the northern Rockies into the High Plains. A ridge is situated 

upstream and is amplifying over the West Coast. VAD wind profilers 

at 500mb indicate a subtle perturbation within the the northwest 

flow pattern in the CO/NE/KS vicinity. At the surface, high pressure 

centered over MN has been building south into the forecast area and 

pushing a sfc low southeast towards the lower Mississippi River 

Valley. This should increase subsidence across the area this 

afternoon into the evening. For the overnight hours, short-term 

model guidance has trended towards keeping reflectivity west of the 

area where the better forcing for ascent appears to be. Further east 

into our area, there is a shallow saturated layer below the DGZ with 

perhaps an hour or two of time when there could be just enough lift 

to squeeze out some freezing drizzle. That narrow time frame has 

trended later, likely after 09Z if it occurs at all. Notably, the 

HRRR has shown more reflectivity in our western counties during the 

afternoon hours Wednesday than at any other point before then. 

Vertical lift still doesn't look very impressive at that time frame, 

but might be a little better than the morning. Overall, the forecast 

appears to be trending toward a dry outcome, as you have to get to 

the 90th percentile to find any QPF. As such, have kept PoPs low to 

account for any limited possibility of freezing precip Wednesday 

morning. If the afternoon time frame does pan out, fortunately 

temperatures look to warm above freezing by then and would more 

likely be dealing with drizzle for a brief time.



Outside of low precip chances, we transition to meridional flow 

aloft Wednesday as the upper ridge builds eastward. This sets up a 

warming trend into Thursday with rising heights and WAA helping to 

boost temperatures into the 50s and low 60s. Similar highs are 

forecast through Monday of next week. Spreads in the ensembles 

become larger by Sunday, but even so, the NBM suggests above average 

temperatures are favored. The next precip chance may come next 

Tuesday, but a lack of consistency between models keeps PoPs low for 

now.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... 

Issued at 520 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Stratus around VFR/MVFR border looks to dominate this forecast

as a damp, cool airmass lingers. Confidence in which side of

this border clouds will be is low to moderate. Expect slow 

cooling to allow for lowering ceiling heights over the next

several hours, lowering TOP and FOE to MVFR. Models are rather

pessimistic with any improvements, but will continue on the

diurnal trend idea with VFR returning late at all sites. 



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Picha

AVIATION...Poage