FXUS63 KSGF 251031 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 531 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - 50-90% chance of intermittent waves of light rain through Sunday. Additional rainfall amounts through Sunday night of 0.5 to 1 inch. - Below average high temperatures expected this weekend and into next week. 20-40% chance of rain Tuesday and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis showed the upper level low moving into the Texas panhandle region. 00z KSGF sounding has shown gradual moistening over the last 24 hours however there continues to be some drier low level air below 850mb with continued easterly winds. This drier air, combined with the slow moving nature of the storm system, has led to lower rain rates, coverage and totals over the last 24 hours. Strong thunderstorms across Texas also likely are keeping the heavier precip further southwest of the region. Temperatures remain fairly stagnant in the lower 50s. Today: Short term model guidance suggests that we will see a gradual increase in light rain showers through the morning as lift from a low level jet moves in along with lift from the incoming system. Instability will remain very low therefore no thunderstorms are expected. Rainfall amounts also look to remain less than 0.5inch. Some areas will see very little rainfall (sprinkles/trace). Rain/clouds and breezy easterly winds will create another cool/damp feeling day with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Tonight: The upper low will move into Oklahoma with a dry slot moving towards southwest Missouri. Latest RAP guidance suggests that the low levels will moisten and cloud ice may reduce enough for drizzle to develop. The only limiting factor for drizzle is the introduction of some very weak elevated instability across far southern Missouri near the Arkansas border. This could cause a few thunderstorms to develop however lightning chances remain less than 20 percent. Sunday: The upper low looks to move east into Arkansas during the day with a broad shield of light rain that develops north of the low. This looks to move through southern Missouri and may actually be the most persistent rainfall we have seen with this system. Rainfall amounts again look to remain at or below 0.5 inch. High temps should be cooler than today with most areas staying in the middle 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Monday: The upper low will move southeast of the region as a strong upper level trough moves into the northern plains. Mostly dry conditions are expected however it looks to remain cloudy with highs remaining below average. Tuesday through Friday: Model variance has increased again with significant differences in the upper pattern as ensemble clusters are showing the potential for an upper low to move over the area Wednesday. Another scenario is for a more progressive upper trough to swing east of the area. Rainfall chances remain in the 20-40% range mid week and additional updates are likely as we get closer. The deeper upper low solution would favor continued below average temperatures with highs potentially in the lower 50s. Model variance remains high past Wednesday which leads to lower confidence in the pattern mid to late week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 529 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Confidence is high that light rain showers will move up into the area through the day. Most of the day should be VFR however MVFR ceilings look to move in by evening. Chances continue to increase for IFR ceilings at the sites tonight into early Sunday morning, especially at JLN and BBG. Winds will likely remain out of the east around 10-15kts with an occasional gust to 20kts. Low level wind shear is possible today at JLN and tonight at SGF. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Burchfield