FXUS63 KSGF 250817

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

317 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- 50-90% chance of intermittent waves of light rain through

  Sunday. Additional rainfall amounts through Sunday night of 

  0.5 to 1 inch.



- Below average high temperatures expected this weekend and into

  next week. 20-40% chance of rain Tuesday and Wednesday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper

air analysis showed the upper level low moving into the Texas

panhandle region. 00z KSGF sounding has shown gradual moistening

over the last 24 hours however there continues to be some drier

low level air below 850mb with continued easterly winds. This

drier air, combined with the slow moving nature of the storm

system, has led to lower rain rates, coverage and totals over 

the last 24 hours. Strong thunderstorms across Texas also likely

are keeping the heavier precip further southwest of the region.

Temperatures remain fairly stagnant in the lower 50s.



Today: Short term model guidance suggests that we will see a

gradual increase in light rain showers through the morning as

lift from a low level jet moves in along with lift from the

incoming system. Instability will remain very low therefore no

thunderstorms are expected. Rainfall amounts also look to remain

less than 0.5inch. Some areas will see very little rainfall

(sprinkles/trace). Rain/clouds and breezy easterly winds will 

create another cool/damp feeling day with highs in the upper 50s

to lower 60s.



Tonight: The upper low will move into Oklahoma with a dry slot

moving towards southwest Missouri. Latest RAP guidance suggests

that the low levels will moisten and cloud ice may reduce enough

for drizzle to develop. The only limiting factor for drizzle is

the introduction of some very weak elevated instability across

far southern Missouri near the Arkansas border. This could cause

a few thunderstorms to develop however lightning chances remain

less than 20 percent. 



Sunday: The upper low looks to move east into Arkansas during

the day with a broad shield of light rain that develops north of

the low. This looks to move through southern Missouri and may

actually be the most persistent rainfall we have seen with this

system. Rainfall amounts again look to remain at or below 0.5 

inch. High temps should be cooler than today with most areas 

staying in the middle 50s. 



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



Monday: The upper low will move southeast of the region as a

strong upper level trough moves into the northern plains. Mostly

dry conditions are expected however it looks to remain cloudy

with highs remaining below average. 

 

Tuesday through Friday: Model variance has increased again with

significant differences in the upper pattern as ensemble

clusters are showing the potential for an upper low to move 

over the area Wednesday. Another scenario is for a more 

progressive upper trough to swing east of the area. Rainfall 

chances remain in the 20-40% range mid week and additional 

updates are likely as we get closer. The deeper upper low 

solution would favor continued below average temperatures with 

highs potentially in the lower 50s. Model variance remains high 

past Wednesday which leads to lower confidence in the pattern 

mid to late week.





&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



Rain showers will begin to return to the area overnight and

towards 12z, especially at SGF and JLN. JLN may bounce around

MVFR and VFR for ceilings however most areas should remain in

VFR through Saturday morning. Conditions begin to deteriorate

late Saturday afternoon through Saturday nightas confidence is

increasing that MVFR to IFR ceilings and vis will move into the

sites with areas of light rain and perhaps drizzle. The chance

of thunderstorms remains very low. Winds will remain out of the

east southeast around 10-15kts with an occasional gust around

20kts during the day.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Burchfield

LONG TERM...Burchfield

AVIATION...Burchfield