FXUS63 KSGF 250540 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1240 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - 50-90% chance of intermittent waves of light rain through Sunday. Highest rain chances west of Highway 65. Total rainfall amounts through Sunday night of 0.5 to 1.5 inches. - Below average high temperatures expected this weekend and into next week. 20-40% chance of rain Monday and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Forecast of off and on light rainfall remains on track as an upper low shifts through the area. For tonight and Saturday, persistent washouts are not expected, with alternating periods of dry and light rain. The greatest persistence and amounts will be west of Highway 65 with the lowest over far south-central MO. There is around a 15% chance for thunder over the far southwestern CWA this evening. Totals this evening through Saturday of a trace (east) to around an inch (far southwest) are expected. Look for highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Light rain will persist into Sunday night as the upper low slowly moves through. Look for additional rainfall amounts ranging from around 0.25 inches west to 0.5-0.8 inches east. There is a 15-25% chance of thunder south of I-44 Saturday night into Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 50s to low 60s. We don't get much of a break from rain chances, with late Sunday night into early Monday being dry, but rain chances (upper to 40%) increasing later Monday into Wednesday (peaking on Tuesday). This time period is significant in question as models are changing significantly run to run and trending toward a highly variable scenario. Models had been shifting a shortwave through the area in northwest flow, but have all trended toward a deep closed 500mb low forming over or near the area. Even the ENS and GEFS 500mb ensemble mean heights have decreased by 75-125 meters in the latest runs (deterministic equivalents dropped by 150-250 meters). This significant trend of guidance reduces confidence, but so does having a tight system overhead. If the closed low does develop, variations in the exact track would lead to significant forecast changes. Decreased confidence continues through the rest of the long term period as model systems struggle to handle the eastward progression of the potential mid-week system. Some guidance becomes progressive with the pattern and brings slightly warmer weather while the other end of guidance develops a deep closed low over the Great Lakes, which results in cooler weather. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Rain showers will begin to return to the area overnight and towards 12z, especially at SGF and JLN. JLN may bounce around MVFR and VFR for ceilings however most areas should remain in VFR through Saturday morning. Conditions begin to deteriorate late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night as confidence is increasing that MVFR to IFR ceilings and vis will move into the sites with areas of light rain and perhaps drizzle. The chance of thunderstorms remains very low. Winds will remain out of the east southeast around 10-15kts with an occasional gust around 20kts during the day. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Burchfield