FXUS63 KSGF 192235

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

535 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Record high temperatures possible Friday through Sunday.



- Elevated to significant fire weather concerns Sunday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Record high temperatures possible Friday through Sunday:

 - Impacts: None

 - Details: Highs climbing into the 80s to low 90s Friday and 

   Saturday.

 - Confidence: High. NBM 25th-75th percentile spreads are

   generally < 5 degrees, showing agreement among models.

 - Meteorological Analysis: Warm air continues to push into the

   region ahead of a cold front that moves through on Sunday.

   Resulting high temperatures are expected to break record

   levels at some point through the day Sunday, but the greatest

   likelihood for breaking records will be on Saturday and 

   Sunday. See climate section below.



Elevated to significant fire weather concerns Sunday.

 - Impacts: Elevated fire danger, especially west of Highway 65.

 - Details: Near record highs in the 80s and low 90s starting

   Friday will persist into Sunday. MinRH values on Sunday are

   expected to be in the 20-30% range, if not a little lower,

   with several days of similar dryness preceding. Gusty winds

   are expected Sunday behind a dry cold front with forecast

   gusts of 20-35 mph.

 - Confidence: Medium-High. Ensemble probabilities for sustained

   winds > 20 mph are 30-50% along/west of Highway 65, with

   probabilities for gusts > 30 mph at 50-80%. Forecast minRH

   values of 20-30% and dry fuels due to multiple prior dry days

   are expected. These factors give an increased confidence in

   reaching at least elevated to significant fire weather

   threat.

 - Meteorological Analysis: The abnormally warm pattern will be

   disrupted by a dry cold front Sunday, but record highs are

   still expected at almost all sites on Sunday, depending on

   frontal timing. Confidence in exact temperatures has

   increased and frontal timing confidence has trended slightly

   later. Monday will be cooler with highs in the 50s and 60s, 

   but temperatures rebound back into the 60s Tuesday and 

   possibly 70s by next Wednesday. No rain is forecast over the 

   next 7 days.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Return to above normal, possibly record, temperatures toward the

middle of next week.

 - Impacts: None.

 - Details: Highs warming back into the 80s by Wednesday next

   week.

 - Confidence: Medium. NBM 25-75th percentile spread is around

   10 degrees, but even the 25th percentile is around 80,

   indicating most of the ensemble guidance has temperatures

   above 80.

 - Meteorological Analysis: After a cold frontal disruption,

   upper ridging will build back in toward the middle of next

   week, resulting in a warming trend.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... 

Issued at 535 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



VFR conditions are expected across the area this evening through 

the day on Friday. A few high clouds will move across the area

this evening. Winds will be light and variable this evening and

tonight and will become southwesterly Friday morning. Friday

afternoon and evening winds will become more westerly from north

to south across the area. 



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Record High Temperatures:



March 19:

KSGF: 86/1907

KJLN: 89/1912

KVIH: 81/1995

KUNO: 81/1969



March 20:

KVIH: 83/2017

KUNO: 89/2017



March 21:

KSGF: 88/1916

KJLN: 91/1907

KVIH: 85/1904

KUNO: 79/2011



March 22:

KSGF: 88/1907

KJLN: 90/1995

KVIH: 78/1904

KUNO: 85/1997



March 25:

KSGF: 83/1910

KJLN: 88/1910

KVIH: 80/1959

KUNO: 79/2012



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Titus

LONG TERM...Titus

AVIATION...Wise

CLIMATE...Titus