FXUS63 KSGF 190556

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1256 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Highs in the 80s Friday into this weekend. These warm 

   temperatures will challenge record highs.



 - Elevated fire weather concerns Sunday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026



Warming temperatures:

 - Impacts: None

 - Details: Highs climbing into the 80s Friday and Saturday.

 - Confidence: High. NBM 25th-75th percentile spreads are

   generally < 5 degrees, showing agreement among models.

 - Meteorological Analysis: As the upper level pattern shifts

   east, the amplified ridge over the western CONUS will push

   into the area while flattening out. This will cause a much

   warmer airmass to push in from the west. Resulting high

   temperatures may near record levels Thursday and Friday, but

   the greatest likelihoods for breaking records will be on

   Saturday and Sunday. See climate section below.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026



Elevated fire weather concerns Sunday:

 - Impacts: Elevated fire danger, especially west of Highway 65.

 - Details: Near record highs in the 80s starting Friday will

   persist into Sunday. MinRH values on Sunday are expected to

   be in the 25-35% range, if not a little lower, with several

   days of similar dryness preceding. Gusty winds are expected 

   Sunday behind a dry cold front.

 - Confidence: Medium. Ensemble probabilities for sustained

   winds > 20 mph are 30-50% along/west of Highway 65. Forecast

   minRH values of 25-35% and dry fuels due to multiple prior 

   dry days are expected.

 - Meteorological Analysis: The abnormally warm pattern will be

   disrupted by a dry cold front Sunday, but record highs are

   still possibly at almost all sites on Sunday, depending on

   frontal timing. Confidence in exact temperatures is lower

   Sunday given greater ensemble spread with that frontal timing

   difference. Monday will be cooler with highs in the 50s and

   60s, but temperatures rebound back into the 60s Tuesday and

   possibly 70s by next Wednesday. No rain is forecast over the

   next 7 days.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



VFR through the period with light southerly winds and mostly

clear skies tonight. Winds turn southwesterly through the day 

on Thursday and become variable by the evening hours. 



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026



Record High Temperatures:



March 19:

KUNO: 81/2009



March 20:

KVIH: 83/2017



March 21:

KSGF: 88/1916

KJLN: 91/1907

KVIH: 85/1904

KUNO: 85/1997



March 22:

KSGF: 88/1907

KVIH: 78/1904

KUNO: 81/2011



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Titus

LONG TERM...Titus

AVIATION...Soria

CLIMATE...Titus/Wise