FXUS63 KSGF 062342 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 642 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing areal and river flooding will continue, with numerous rivers still in flood stage and dozens of roads across southern Missouri still reported to be closed by MODOT. - An upper low will lift northeast into the area and bring a mix of rain and snow through this afternoon. No impacts are expected from these showers. - Sub-freezing temperatures are expected the next couple of nights. A Freeze Warning is in effect for the entire area from 11 PM tonight through 9 AM Monday morning, and an additional Freeze Watch is in effect from 11 PM Monday night through 9 AM Tuesday morning. - Warming back into the 70s by the middle to end of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Upper-air analysis shows split flow across the CONUS, with a low over the Hudson Bay and a secondary, weaker low over central Oklahoma, both embedded within a deep trough that extends from the Hudson Bay to Baja California. The southernmost jet streak extends from south-central Texas into the western Ohio River Valley, and our position within the left exit region of this jet streak is supporting some light showers, as seen on early afternoon radar. The showers that are moving across the region this afternoon are more impressive on radar than in reality, with much of the precipitation sublimating/evaporating before reaching the ground. RTMA depicts surface dew point depressions generally in the 7-20 range across our area, with the highest moisture (lowest dew point depressions) furthest east. While surface temperatures are in the low to mid-40s, which would suggest rain showers, RAP mesoanalysis progs a wet bulb temperature around 40 degrees, which explains some late morning and early afternoon snow and sleet reports. Wet-bulbing will be necessary for any precip to reach the ground, but climbing temperatures support any remaining showers to reach the ground as rain. Tonight, the cloud deck associated with the afternoon showers will filter out to the east, with clear skies and calm winds settling in as a high pressure builds to our north. With persistent cold air advection and clear skies, temperatures will fall below freezing and as low as mid-20s tonight. These temperatures will freeze any early crops or vegetation, thus a Freeze Warning is in effect from 11 PM tonight until 9 AM Monday morning. The lowest temperatures and most vulnerable areas will be along the spine of the plateau. Monday will be sunny and warmer, with high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s as the high pressure builds further into the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Monday night will again be cold and clear, with low temperatures between the mid-20s and freezing. A Freeze Watch is in effect from 11 PM Monday until 9 AM Tuesday, which will more than likely be upgraded to a Freeze Warning on Monday. The lowest temperatures and most vulnerable areas will again be along the spine of the plateau, as well as into areas further to the northeast. A ridge will begin building back into the Plains on Tuesday, with warm air advection increasing our temperatures through the week. We return to the 70s on Wednesday, when a quick clipper system will begin to slide across the Midwest and bring low (15-35%) chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening into Thursday. Best chances for rain look to be further north and east spatially and during the day on Thursday temporally. Severe storms are not anticipated with this activity. The system will bring a cold front through the region, cooling us back into the upper 60s on Thursday and Friday. However, temperatures will start climbing again next weekend, and despite a moderate spread between the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles, confidence is high in above-normal temperatures next weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near 80 degrees by Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Monday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Camden LONG TERM...Camden AVIATION...Titus