FXUS63 KPAH 251031 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 531 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain shower chances will begin to increase early Sunday morning and will continue through Wednesday. - Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal Sunday through all of next week. - Dry and cool conditions are forecast for the latter half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Sfc high pressure will remain in control over the Ohio Valley today with seasonable conditions and tranquil weather. 500 mb energy over the southern Plains associated with a weak sfc low will approach the FA early Sunday morning with an increase in moisture. In the wake of pcpn, most of today is progged to remain dry as the time heights show a very dry boundary layer persisting into tonight with ceilings around 7-10 kft. Given that the better PVA combined with modest WAA and frontogenesis does not arrive until Sunday, blended NBM PoPs lower with the HREF and added a sprinkle mention for tonight. Many of the 0z CAMs and the NBM support very little QPF. The HREF only shows measurable amounts between a trace to over a tenth inch confined to mainly the Ozark Foothills where very light rain showers will be possible. After daybreak Sunday, scattered rain showers will increase in coverage through the afternoon as the aforementioned sfc low passes by to the south. A lull in pcpn coverage remains on track for Monday before a amplified 500 mb shortwave trough moves downstream from the Rockies, developing into a closed Wednesday while phasing with another disturbance over the northeast CONUS. Another period of rain showers is likely Tuesday into Wednesday with total QPF amounts between 1 to 2 inches. Due to the long duration and PWATs only maxed out over 1.00 inches, flooding issues are not anticipated. The increase in cloud cover and pcpn chances will mean much cooler temperatures with highs in the lower 60s and lows in the mid 40s to near 50. Drier conditions return to the FA Wednesday night into Thursday as a ridge of high pressure builds during the latter half of the week. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool by about 5-10 degrees with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and lows in the mid to upper 30s. In fact, the 0z ECMWF and CMC are more robust with 850 mb temps falling below 0C while the GFS is a few degrees warmer. Depending on how much the pressure gradient weakens, there would be a higher probability of lows closer to freezing in some spots than what is currently being progged by the NBM. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 531 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 VFR conditions will persist across all terminals today. Winds will be light out of the east with overcast skies around 10 kft AGL. Clouds gradually thicken overnight with scattered sprinkles. Very light rain showers may approach KCGI towards the end of the TAF period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...DW