FXUS63 KPAH 240708 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 208 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frosty start to our Friday, then increasing clouds but remaining primarily dry through Saturday afternoon. - Rain chances are increasingly likely Saturday night into Sunday. The unsettled pattern looks to continue into early and possibly mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 A 1024mb surface high is positioned over central Kentucky early this morning. Our area is on the western periphery of this, and some high clouds are starting to stream in from a system to our west. Temperatures are currently in the upper 30s to lower 40s in most locations, and likely will fall into the mid 30s for many east of the Mississippi River. This will result in fairly widespread frost to start our Friday. A few locations may flirt with the freezing mark as well. An upper low over the Four Corners region will slowly drift eastward becoming centered over the Southern Plains on Saturday and eventually lifting across the mid-Mississippi Valley Sunday into Monday. Waves of energy ahead of this feature are resulting in precipitation developing across KS/OK and into far western MO currently. With the influence of the Surface High that remains over the Ohio Valley, feel like the dry air will win out today and most of tomorrow. This likely keeps our area primarily precip-free until after sunset Saturday. As the upper system spins closer to us, we should see the column finally saturate down with rain spreading in Saturday night and through the day on Sunday. A lot of guidance keeps highs in the 50s on Sunday with the overcast and rain around, so our current forecast with low 60s may be overdone. Still a decent amount of uncertainty early next week, but models generally show some sort of troughiness keeping us unsettled with lingering rain chances Monday. As we move into Tuesday and Wednesday, northern stream energy seems likely to dive southeast into the Central CONUS and carve out a deeper trough across the Ohio Valley. Not sure the moisture feed will be great, so QPF amounts may remain on the lighter end, but still a decent chance to remain unsettled during this period. Late week looks drier, including for Halloween trick-or-treaters, so let's hope that holds up! Temperatures will average below normal, and our current forecast may be too warm, especially Sunday and perhaps Monday. After highs in the 60s the next two days, many days may remain in the 50s starting on Sunday and continuing through much of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 515 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 The surface high pressure ridge that extends across the area will shift ever so slightly to the east this package...as developing low pressure takes shape and gradually gears up for an eventual weekend approach from the west. Gridded time/height cross sections show a bone dry column until the planning phase hours of the forecast, during which top-down saturation begins to occur/seen manifested in the H7-H5 layer. We've brought in some initial FEW-SCT cirrus bases, with CIGS potential mid level bases in the 10-15K range by the end of the effective valid time of the forecast. Light northerly component winds at issuance gradually veer to easterly component with time over the course of this forecast package. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-087- 100-110>112-114. IN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ this morning for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>022. && $$DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...Previous Fcter