FXUS63 KPAH 211737

AFDPAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

1237 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Record high temperatures are expected this weekend. Some

  locations could break monthly high temperature records for

  March. 



- A potent cold front will sweep through the region Sunday

  evening, bringing a 25-50% chance of thunderstorms east of the

  Mississippi River. An isolated severe thunderstorm with

  damaging wind gusts is possible. 



- Temperatures will cool back to seasonable values early next

  week, but will warm up again to 10-20 degrees above normal by

  Thursday. 



- Another chance (25-50%) of shower and thunderstorms returns 

  to the forecast Thursday and Friday, along with cooler 

  temperatures.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 143 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



A rare and unusually warm period of early summer heat is 

forecast this weekend. As the extreme heat dome across the 

southwest CONUS expands eastward into the Midwest, temperatures

at 850 mb will rise to 18-22C today and Sunday. This is pretty 

much outside of the observed climatology for March in this part 

of the world.



Temperatures today and Sunday will warm into the middle and 

upper 80s. However, in the Ozark Foothills, high temperatures 

in the lower to middle 90s are possible. To put that heat in 

context, the warmest March temperature on record at any of our 

five official climate sites is 93F, set in Carbondale on March 

23, 1910. Monthly temperatures are forecast to be tied or broken

today or Sunday at Paducah (85F in 1967), Evansville (87F in 

1929), and Cape Girardeau (85F in 1986). 



The taste of summer will end Sunday evening as potent cold front

sweeps through the region from north to south. Model guidance

has trended a bit more robust in storm coverage for locations 

east of the Mississippi River, now up to 25-50%. However, the 

entire region will be under a very strong cap, and confidence in

storm initiation and coverage remains very low. If storms can 

develop, they will be high-based with a downburst damaging wind

threat as the primary threat. SPC has a good part of the

forecast area east of the Mississippi River in a Marginal Risk

for Sunday evening, which is probably OK as far as messaging

goes. 



Following the passage of the cold front, Canadian high pressure

will bring a major cooldown back to typical late March

temperatures as it sags into the Midwest. As the surface high 

shifts east of the region, southerly return flow will increase, 

bringing another warmup for the latter half of next week to 

10-20 degrees above normal by Thursday. Another cold front 

associated with a progged surface low passing through the Great 

Lakes looks to bring another chance (25-50%) of showers and 

thunderstorms by Thursday into Friday, but details regarding the

timing and coverage remain vague still.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



VFR conditions through the end of the period. Some high cirrus

is expected to move in tomorrow morning. Winds are generally out

of the south and southwest and are fairly light today, late

overnight winds will start to pick up out of the southwest

through the morning hours with gusts to around 20-23 kts. 



&&



.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...None.

MO...None.

IN...None.

KY...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...DWS

AVIATION...HICKFORD