FXUS63 KPAH 201805

AFDPAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

105 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...

 

- Increasing humidity will help lead to widespread showers and 

  thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through Monday; locally heavy 

  rainfall and strong to severe storms will be possible.



- Cooler and drier conditions return Tuesday and continue 

  before scattered storms re-enter the forecast heading into 

  next weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



An MCS develops late tonight and tracks from northern MO across

central IL, nosing into our northern counties by midday Sunday.

It will encounter a destabilizing atmosphere here, where dew

points have risen into the lower 70s, and bulk shear increases

to 25-35 kts. With highs forecast in the mid and upper 80s,

MUCAPES increase to 2-3K Joules by late afternoon into the early

evening. Pops for showers/storms increase markedly then, and as

low pressure rides along the convective boundary laid out, some

storms along that boundary/with the low track may become 

severe, with all hazards mode potential. The line of convection 

dives south across the Ohio Valley tmrw night, and takes the 

severe risk with it. In addition, NAEFS E-SAT indicates 10-30 

year Return Intervals on maxed out lower trop moisture 

transport of chart topping PW's near 2", so while the flow is 

such they'll move in and out and any one storm may not do it, a 

procession of repeat storms over the same area may bring heavy 

enough successive rains to similarly bring a slight risk of 

localized flooding.



The models depict another wave that rides along the tail end of

the aforementioned boundary and ushers the remaining convective

chances on across our south half of the region thru the day

Monday. After that, cooler and drier air overtakes the region,

and lasts thru the bulk of the remainder of the work week.

Scattered storms then make an appearance, returning to the 

forecast heading into next weekend. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... 

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



Mid and high level bases will be SCT-BKN, before lower bases

move in as an MCS approaches late tonight into tmrw morning.

Pops enter the forecast then, esp toward the end of the 

planning phase hours of the forecast, when restrictions to 

CIGS/VSBYS are likewise brought to the forefront.



&&



.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...None.

MO...None.

IN...None.

KY...None.



&&



$$