FXUS63 KPAH 201730

AFDPAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Temperatures will continue to soar 20-30 degrees above normal

  today through this weekend. High temperatures will approach

  record levels each day. 



- A cold front will bring a small chance (15-30%) of showers and

  thunderstorms Sunday night, mainly east of the Mississippi

  River. Isolated severe storms can't be ruled out Sunday

  evening.



- Temperatures will temporarily cool back to near normal values

  for late March early next week, but will again rise to 10-20

  degrees above normal for the second half of next week with a

  25-35% chance of showers and storms late in the week.





&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



The upper level chart/water vapor satellite across the CONUS

looks a lot like June with a 594 dm ridge over Arizona and

northwest flow over the central US. Temperatures are singing a

similar tune as well as we soar into the mid 70s and low 80s

across the region today. Temperatures appear likely to be even

warmer tomorrow we we get into 20 degrees above normal

territory. By Saturday afternoon that large scale ridge to our

west breaks down and a fairly strong cold front starts heading

this way.



As the front moves in guidance surges 60 to 65 degree dewpoints

into the area. This gives us about 1000-1500 J/kg of conditional

MLCAPE. But a strong residual capping inversion is evidence in

all guidance accompanied by relatively low mid level relative

humidity. SPC grabbed the northeastern portion of the CWA in a

MRGL Sunday afternoon. It appears to be a case where the overall

chance of anything developing giving the capping inversion and

very modest/limited large scale ascent (save of course the

actual cold front) remains low. However, if anything were to get

going it would have a good shear/thermodynamic profile for a

hail and wind threat, likely in the form of an isolated

supercell. So the forecast is essentially 70% chance for dry

conditions, but if something develops it would have the

potential to be severe.



Once the front passes through we cool off almost back to normal

before deep layer ridging forms up in the southwest again and we

end up in a pattern that looks a lot like where we started off

today. A cold front then pushes through Thursday or Friday.

GFS/ECMWF have pretty different solutions for jet

position/intensity with this system so we will see how the

specifics fall out.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with moderate

southwest winds becoming light this evening through early

Saturday.



&&



.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...None.

MO...None.

IN...None.

KY...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JGG

AVIATION...JGG