FXUS63 KPAH 200353 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1053 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A significant warming trend will send temperatures rising 15-25 degrees above normal by this weekend. - A cold front will bring a small and decreasing chance (10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms east of the Mississippi River Sunday evening. - Temperatures will cool back to near normal late March values early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Relatively tranquil weather conditions are apparent across the region today. Patchy high clouds dot the western half of the quad-state on the nose of a modest jet max pushing into and east of the area. Dry, warmer and mostly sunny conditions persist through tomorrow with the main noticeable differences being a slightly stronger southwest breeze and temperatures peaking about 8 degrees higher. Saturday looks a little warmer still. Good model agreement on a fairly strong cold front moving through Sunday although there is also pretty good agreement that it will be a dry passage due to a lack of column moisture, particularly in the mid-levels. I'm a little skeptical of a dry March front, but will hold the line for now keeping a breezy and dry day in place. Behind the front temperatures drop back closer to seasonal norms with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. With a general trend warming back up somewhat into the middle of next week. There are no obvious major/trackable weather systems or hazards through the rest of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Good flying conditions are expected through this TAF issuance with VFR ceilings and visibilities. Winds will shift from the south tonight to the west by Friday afternoon. Gusts may reach close to 20 kts during peak heating. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...KC