FXUS63 KPAH 192338 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 638 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory continues this afternoon with heat indices over 100. - Showers and storms possible this afternoon and evening with the possibility of heavy downpours and downbursts. - Near normal temps and drier weather Wednesday through the weekend, then slightly below normal temps to start off next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 A Heat Advisory is still in effect this afternoon for continued heat indices of 100-115. Upper level ridging is breaking down this afternoon with the passage of a shortwave aloft. This will bring a cold front through the area this afternoon and evening from north to south. There is a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook for this afternoon with PWATs of 1.7 to 1.9. This means there could be heavy downpours at times within these storms. SPC has us in a Marginal Risk for severe weather today for downburst potential. Current mesoanalysis supports 3,500 to 4,500 J/kg of SBCAPE across the area, with little to no bulk shear, and low level lapse rates of around 8.5 degC/km along with the presence of inverted V soundings. This all suggests the potential for strong winds via downbursts of collapsing pulse storms. Behind the front expect near normal temperatures through Sunday and drier conditions. Highs will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s through Sunday. Another cold front comes through late Saturday night into Sunday and brings even cooler temperatures to start off the week. Highs will be in the upper 70 to lower 80s with overnight lows in the 50s! && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Scattered convection, primarily focused across our northern counties now, is expected to gradually dissipate over the next several hours. Light winds overnight will pick up out of the NNE tomorrow morning, eventually becoming sustained 8-11 kts in the afternoon with some gusts of 15-18 kts possible. Some guidance is hinting at the possibility of some lower cigs in the morning, with KCGI/KPAH appearing most likely to see them. Have included mention of MVFR cigs for now. Patchy fog is also possible, particularly in those areas that observed rain, if we can manage more breaks in the clouds towards sunrise. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022. && $$ UPDATE...SP DISCUSSION...HICKFORD AVIATION...SP