FXUS63 KPAH 191910 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 210 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory continues this afternoon with heat indices over 100. - Showers and storms possible this afternoon and evening with the possibility of heavy downpours and downbursts. - Near normal temps and drier weather Wednesday through the weekend, then slightly below normal temps to start off next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 A Heat Advisory is still in effect this afternoon for continued heat indices of 100-115. Upper level ridging is breaking down this afternoon with the passage of a shortwave aloft. This will bring a cold front through the area this afternoon and evening from north to south. There is a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook for this afternoon with PWATs of 1.7 to 1.9. This means there could be heavy downpours at times within these storms. SPC has us in a Marginal Risk for severe weather today for downburst potential. Current mesoanalysis supports 3,500 to 4,500 J/kg of SBCAPE across the area, with little to no bulk shear, and low level lapse rates of around 8.5 degC/km along with the presence of inverted V soundings. This all suggests the potential for strong winds via downbursts of collapsing pulse storms. Behind the front expect near normal temperatures through Sunday and drier conditions. Highs will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s through Sunday. Another cold front comes through late Saturday night into Sunday and brings even cooler temperatures to start off the week. Highs will be in the upper 70 to lower 80s with overnight lows in the 50s! && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Still waiting on the afternoon cu field to develop at around 5k ft. Later this afternoon/evening and into the early overnight spotty storms are expected to start popping up across portions of the area. These storms may affect the terminals at times with gusty winds and low vsby due to heavy rain. The cloud deck from these storms may be MVFR for several hours. Winds will continue to be light and variable today and overnight, and then will turn to the north overnight. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022. && $$ DISCUSSION...HICKFORD AVIATION...HICKFORD