FXUS63 KPAH 191651

AFDPAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A significant warming trend will send temperatures rising

  15-25 degrees above normal by this weekend. 



- A cold front will bring a small and decreasing chance 

  (10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms east of the Mississippi 

  River Sunday evening. 



- Temperatures will cool back to near normal late March values

  early next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Relatively tranquil weather conditions are apparent across the

region today. Patchy high clouds dot the western half of the

quad-state on the nose of a modest jet max pushing into and east

of the area. Dry, warmer and mostly sunny conditions persist

through tomorrow with the main noticeable differences being

a slightly stronger southwest breeze and temperatures peaking

about 8 degrees higher. Saturday looks a little warmer still.



Good model agreement on a fairly strong cold front moving

through Sunday although there is also pretty good agreement that

it will be a dry passage due to a lack of column moisture, 

particularly in the mid-levels. I'm a little skeptical of a dry

March front, but will hold the line for now keeping a breezy and

dry day in place. Behind the front temperatures drop back closer

to seasonal norms with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

With a general trend warming back up somewhat into the middle of

next week. There are no obvious major/trackable weather systems

or hazards through the rest of the forecast period.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Southwest winds

will ease overnight before picking back up a little stronger

during the day on Friday.



&&



.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...None.

MO...None.

IN...None.

KY...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JGG

AVIATION...JGG