FXUS63 KPAH 072300 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 600 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Significant flooding continues across the area due to extremely high rainfall amounts experienced over the past week. Many rivers will crest in moderate to major levels, with a few near record levels. - A freeze is expected across the region tonight, with a chilly day on tap for Tuesday with highs struggling to reach 50 in some areas. - Rain chances return mid-week, primarily Wednesday night through Thursday. Overall amounts look light though, generally 0.25" or less most areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 A secondary boundary makes passage this evening, accompanied by some clouds. A few models try to spit out some sprinkles across southwest IN into west KY, which can't be ruled out. Otherwise, the main impact will be well below normal temperatures tonight as 850mb Ts drop into the -4 to -7 C range. NBM probabilities are quite high for sub-freezing temperatures across the northern 2/3rds of the cwa. May be some locales near TN and AR borders that remain just above though. There's also a good chance (50-70%) that some locations in southern IL or southwest IN experience a hard freeze (28 or colder). High pressure overhead on Tuesday will provide plenty of sunshine, but it will be quite chilly. NBM probabilities are quite low for highs reaching 50 across the EVV/OWB areas, with most of the region only topping out in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Another cold night is on tap for tomorrow night, but readings should be around 3 to 5 degrees warmer in most areas. Right now expecting primarily mid 30s, but could be some low 30s still across the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of the region. The mid-upper level flow will primarily be out of the northwest this week. Shortwave energy is forecast to dive southeastward from the Northern Plains on Wednesday with the initial batch of precip possibly impacting far northern parts of the cwa on Wednesday. A frontal boundary moves through Wednesday night accompanied by a good chance for light to moderate rain showers. MUCAPE is present as well so could see a few rumbles of thunder. Another lobe of energy rotates through the 500mb flow on Thursday, leading to another round of rain showers during the afternoon and evening. Once again could see some isolated thunderstorm potential given some instability present. NBM probabilities for receiving 0.50" of rain this week only range from 10% in southeast MO to around 40% in parts of the KY Pennyrile and southwest IN. So at least we aren't talking about significant rainfall amounts from this system as we attempt to dry out from last weeks historic deluge! Upper level troughing settles overhead Friday into Saturday, resulting in well below normal temperatures returning. Highs may remain in the 50s for much of the area on Friday and will only be slightly warmer on Saturday. Can't rule out some lingering showers on the backside of the system for Friday. Otherwise the weekend looks dry. Upper ridging pushes in Sunday resulting in temperatures rebounding. Even warmer readings are expected on Monday. In fact, NBM probabilities even depict around a 50% chance for highs around 80 for southwest parts of the region. General consensus amongst guidance is for another system to spread rain chances back into the region sometime early next week. Could be Monday into Monday night or it may hold off until Tuesday. Good news is there are no significant heavy rain or severe storm chances on the horizon for now. We certainly could use a very long extended break from those! && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Passing mid-level clouds associated with a frontal boundary will push through this evening into tonight. Winds will be gusty around 20 kts before turning north to northeast between 5-10 kts. Mostly clear skies can be expected on Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Freeze Warning from midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight to 9 AM CDT /10 AM EDT/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>022. && $$ DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...DW