FXUS63 KPAH 070405 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1105 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Considerable to catastrophic flooding continues across the area due to historically high weekly rainfall amounts of over one foot in places, flooding homes and businesses. - Below to well below normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions for the first half of the new week. This includes a chance of freezing temperatures the coldest night, Monday night, with a Freeze Watch in effect. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Lift from weak low amplitude perturbations in upper level SW flow atop an unseasonably cool and moist low level airmass and associated isentropic ascent is fostering areas of light rain/showers. These rain chances will linger this evening with the approach of a weakening upper low from Oklahoma, before ending overnight as high pressure begins to build in from the north. The strengthening subsidence will lead to decreasing clouds overnight into early Monday morning and some chilly lows mainly in the 30s. A few areas could be down around freezing north/west of a Popular Bluff to Cape Girardeau to Evansville line, but likely not for a climatologically long enough time to cause any damage to sensitive vegetation. Some fog may also possible in the same area outlined for those near freezing lows, but is of low confidence on extent/magnitude due to cloud trends and the likelihood of a northerly puff of wind for much of the night. On Monday, as high pressure continues to build into the region we'll see some much welcome sunshine for the first time in a while. The sunshine will help to push temperatures back closer to seasonal averages and in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Monday night and Tuesday morning look to be the coldest of the period with the high settling across the region. NBM probabilities are 60-90% for low temps below 32F over much of the area except over the far southern service area, supporting the likelihood of a fairly widespread freeze and thus the freeze watch remains in effect. Can't rule out a hard freeze for some along/north of a Cape Girardeau to Evansville line where NBM probabilities of lows below 28F are 40-60%. During the mid-week time-frame we'll see the high push off to the east and southerly return flow/warm advection develop owing to warmer temperatures in the 60s/lower 70s. At the same time rain chances will return Wednesday through Thursday, as a Northern Plains shortwave amplifies/deepens while shifting across the Ohio Valley. Rain is exactly what we don't need! However, if there is any good news it's that amounts look to be mainly light to moderate and not too impactful. NBM probabilities at 10-30% for 48 hour rain amounts greater than 0.75 inch ending 12z Friday. After this system moves through there's a good signal for an amplifying upper ridge and surface high pressure to provide another dry stretch of weather next weekend with warming temperatures above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 A brief period of MVFR conditions will be possible, mainly at the eastern TAF sites early in the TAF period. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through much of the rest of this TAF issuance with winds becoming light as high pressure builds overhead. If winds become light enough, some patchy ground fog may develop as skies clear. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for KYZ001>022. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...KC