FXUS63 KPAH 051734 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1234 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Off and on plain rainy day should evolve into a little more widespread rain with a few thunderstorms this evening. - There is a small risk (5-10% or less) of storms becoming strong/severe this afternoon or evening with hail the concern. - Rainfall rates still look to be too low/spread out for any real flooding concern. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Modest warm air and moisture advection continue to combine to produce off and on showers that have mostly translated to a plain 'ol rainy day across the CWA. A surface low over OK/TX fills as it tracks this way this afternoon. Jet-level forcing is extremely limited if not convergent reflected in 500mb height rises across much of the day. Nevertheless the approaching sfc cold front should provide adequate ascent for continued showers/rain and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm. Dewpoints to the southwest are a little better, and the possibility for just a little boundary layer instability to develop is there but it seems like a pretty narrow window. With the MUCAPE, somewhat low wet bulb zero heights and available westerly shear a hailstorm or two would be the main concern it would appear. Behind the cold front we cool off for a couple days before return flow starts back up on Friday and another front sweeps through quickly. Moisture return is greatly limited and it looks like severe weather threat remains low with this FROPA despite the time of year. We do the same thing roughly over the weekend with a quick shot of moisture return in the progressive overall pattern and maintain a pretty good rain/thunder chance Sunday. There are subtle timing difference that once resolved will probably produce a fairly focused period of rain/thunderstorms sometime Sunday or early Monday. Still doesn't look like a favorable severe pattern with instability limited. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Expect two rounds of thunderstorms that will buttress widespread light to moderate rain showers after 11-16z. The first round of thunder will be between mainly in the daylight morning hours, but coverage looks to be low enough for only PROB30 groups as a stationary boundary moves south into the area. The second round of thunder looks more pronounced and will be between 20-04z, where periods of VCTS are now included. Between these, cigs will fall to IFR with MVFR or IFR vsby restrictions. Winds will be steady from the S to SW around 6-12 kts until late afternoon, when they will become N to NE as the frontal boundary shifts south of the area along with continued light rain showers. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...