FXUS63 KPAH 050451

AFDPAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

1151 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will spread 

  southeast across the entire region Monday night into Tuesday 

  morning, with 80-100% chances Tuesday into Tuesday evening.



- Chances (30% north to 60-70% southeast) of showers will 

  linger into Wednesday, with a few thunderstorms still possible

  near the Missouri/Arkansas and Kentucky/Tennessee borders, 

  then showers will end from northwest to southeast Wednesday 

  night.



- Rainfall amounts hold fairly steady, with the latest forecast

  amounts mostly in the one to one and three quarters of an inch

  range. Chances of greater than an inch are 60-80%, and greater

  than 2 inches are 15-40%.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Mostly sunny, breezy, and warm across the area today. A few

showers/thunderstorms are bubbling up to the northwest mainly on

an area of warm air advection and elevated instability. They 

are struggling to make their way southeast owing to weak forcing

and very dry air both at the surface and in the 850-700mb 

level. Advective processes could change that in the late 

afternoon mainly around Mt. Vernon, IL but based on downstream 

soundings it looks like precip will hold off for now until the 

main storm system gets closer.



The leading edge of better low-level warm air advection

approaches by daybreak Tuesday. Jet-level ascent is muted with

mostly a zonal 120-130 kt flow from the Gulf to the Great Lakes.

Rain chances ramp up there and increase through the day as a

surface cold front slowly creeps in from the northwest. Surface

dewpoints try to break above 60 by the late afternoon which

seems reasonable looking at downstream obs in Texas. 



The increase in column moisture is collocated with fairly poor

mid-level lapse rates, insolation should be limited by heavy

cloud cover, theta-e advection is modest at best, and rainfall

should also provide some cooling through the day. This should

result in minimal boundary layer instability. The best chance

for destabilization is as usual in the late afternoon and there

is good deep layer and modestly supportive low level shear for

some wind/tornado threat but it really looks too stable for now

for that to be much of a factor. QPFs are pretty consistent with

better than even chances to get over an inch of rain in most of

the area. 



We stay cool for a couple of days following FROPA before

returning to seasonable conditions. A broader/stronger 

shortwave produces another front and rain/storm chance early 

next week. The short duration between waves however lead to a 

very short duration of moisture return and for now at least 

surface-based instability appears limited.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Low confidence forecast again for the 06z TAF package. Used the

HREF to help time out thunder probabilities. Expected two rounds

of thunderstorms that will buttress widespread light to moderate

rain showers after 11-16z. 



The first round of thunder will be between 11-17z, but coverage

looks to be low enough for only PROB30 groups as a stationary 

boundary moves south into the area. The second round of thunder 

looks more pronounced and will be between 20-04z, where periods

of VCTS are now included. Between this cigs will fall to IFR 

with MVFR or IFR vsby restrictions.



Winds will be steady from the S to SW around 6-12 kts until 

late afternoon, when they will become N to NE as the frontal 

boundary shifts south of the area along with continues light 

rain showers. 



&&



.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...None.

MO...None.

IN...None.

KY...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...DWS

DISCUSSION...JGG

AVIATION...DWS