FXUS63 KPAH 041814

AFDPAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

114 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will spread 

  southeast across the entire region Monday night into Tuesday 

  morning, with 80-100% chances Tuesday into Tuesday evening.



- Chances (30% north to 60-70% southeast) of showers will 

  linger into Wednesday, with a few thunderstorms still possible

  near the Missouri/Arkansas and Kentucky/Tennessee borders, 

  then showers will end from northwest to southeast Wednesday 

  night.



- Rainfall amounts hold fairly steady, with the latest forecast

  amounts mostly in the one to one and three quarters of an inch

  range. Chances of greater than an inch are 60-80%, and greater

  than 2 inches are 15-40%.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Mostly sunny, breezy, and warm across the area today. A few

showers/thunderstorms are bubbling up to the northwest mainly on

an area of warm air advection and elevated instability. They 

are struggling to make their way southeast owing to weak forcing

and very dry air both at the surface and in the 850-700mb 

level. Advective processes could change that in the late 

afternoon mainly around Mt. Vernon, IL but based on downstream 

soundings it looks like precip will hold off for now until the 

main storm system gets closer.



The leading edge of better low-level warm air advection

approaches by daybreak Tuesday. Jet-level ascent is muted with

mostly a zonal 120-130 kt flow from the Gulf to the Great Lakes.

Rain chances ramp up there and increase through the day as a

surface cold front slowly creeps in from the northwest. Surface

dewpoints try to break above 60 by the late afternoon which

seems reasonable looking at downstream obs in Texas. 



The increase in column moisture is collocated with fairly poor

mid-level lapse rates, insolation should be limited by heavy

cloud cover, theta-e advection is modest at best, and rainfall

should also provide some cooling through the day. This should

result in minimal boundary layer instability. The best chance

for destabilization is as usual in the late afternoon and there

is good deep layer and modestly supportive low level shear for

some wind/tornado threat but it really looks too stable for now

for that to be much of a factor. QPFs are pretty consistent with

better than even chances to get over an inch of rain in most of

the area. 



We stay cool for a couple of days following FROPA before

returning to seasonable conditions. A broader/stronger 

shortwave produces another front and rain/storm chance early 

next week. The short duration between waves however lead to a 

very short duration of moisture return and for now at least 

surface-based instability appears limited.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



VFR conditions with gusty south winds remain forecast for the

rest of the afternoon and early evening. A few showers may

approach MVN but the odds seems fairly low for now. Rain showers

and thunderstorms will become a factor most everywhere by the

late overnight/early morning hours on Tuesday with MVFR/IFR cigs

and visibility possible towards the end of the new TAF period.



&&



.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-

     080>094.

MO...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-

     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening for 

     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JGG

AVIATION...JGG