FXUS63 KPAH 031830

AFDPAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

1230 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A cold front is parked roughly bisecting the area this

  afternoon. A few rain showers may dot the landscape but

  amounts are expected to remain light. 



- Colder temperatures are expected tomorrow and Thursday with

  temperatures trending warmer for Friday into the weekend, 

  with readings likely to be closer to normal. Normal highs are 

  in the mid 40s and normal lows are in the upper 20s.



- There is an increasing signal for warmer than normal

  temperatures next week, with latest trends suggesting at 

  least a 50% chance at temperatures reaching 60 degrees by Feb 

  11-12!



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1230 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



A weak surface low pressure center at about 1017 mb is slowly

moving east across the area. Drier air down low seems to be

winning the low clouds/rain battle with some light radar returns

in the northeastern part of the area, and more showery looking

features over Tennessee. Surface observations are mostly dry

however. Temperatures have warmed to the point that actual

surface temps appear warm enough to prevent frozen precip

impacts even if things end up heavier than expected. The shower

activity in Tennessee looks like the best bet for measurable

precip over the area as it moves over parts of west Kentucky

through this afternoon.



Cold air moves in behind this system once again with highs

expected to struggle to exceed freezing tomorrow and only

slightly above on Thursday. As heights rise through the weekend

temperatures should moderate with highs working into the lower 

50s. There is reasonable agreement in ensemble and deterministic

guidances for a surface ridge to set up over the southeast US

early next week that puts us in stronger return flow and highs

might work into the upper 50s or 60s in such a pattern towards

the end of the current forecast period.







 &&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1122 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Continued a trend of improved ceilings/visibility through the

rest of the day. Some risk for periodic MVFR ceilings remain

through the day but the probability appears to be higher for

things to stay VFR til at least this evening. MVFR conditions

appear more likely for a period tonight before improving again

during the day tomorrow.



&&



.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...None.

MO...None.

IN...None.

KY...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JGG

AVIATION...JGG