FXUS63 KOAX 242321

AFDOAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

621 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Rain chances (15-30%) continue for areas along the Kansas

  state line through the night.



- Near-normal temperatures will persist through the weekend,

  with highs in the upper 50s to near 60 and lows in the upper 

  40s.



- Widespread rain chances (40-60%) return Monday and Tuesday.



- Halloween looks dry!



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



I forgot to mention the inclusion of fog in the western 

counties forecast overnight. The cool conditions, moist 

boundary layer, and weak upslope northeasterly winds should 

produce widespread fog in central Nebraska and visibility 

reductions on the western periphery of this forecast area. 

Numerical guidance keeps densest fog west of Norfolk and Lincoln

at this point.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Cloud cover moved into the area this morning and helped temps

from hitting rock bottom. It looks like the threat for the

season's first freeze at KOMA now waits until November (if the

forecast holds). FWIW, NWS Omaha has chosen not to issue

frost/freeze warnings after October 31st this year... regardless

of the season's lowest temp to date at that point. I ran the

numbers, Omaha's lowest temp this season so far has been 35F

(Eppley). That leaves it later than 86% of years to hit 34F and

later to hit the freezing mark than 3 out of four of years on 

record (POR 1871-now).



The cloud cover today has moderated temperatures a bit, too.

Afternoon temps range from low 60s north to upper 40s south

where occasional light rain showers have fallen. Despite the

occasional shower between 8am and noon, KFNB had accumulated 

only 0.02" as those showers battle dry easterly boundary layer

winds. These showers will be limited to the southern tier or 

two of counties in southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa 

as a surface low spins slowly across Kansas today, tonight, and

through much of the weekend. The bulk of the precip will remain

south of the state line. The sfc low, cut off from the mid- 

latitude jet, will only slowly meander east. In fact, PoPs of 

15-30% linger in far southeast Nebraska through Sunday morning.



A cutoff low over the Four Corners will also take the entirety

of Saturday to travel from Durango, CO to northern TX. This CWA

will be too far north to see anything more than 35% PoPs 

(south), but widespread cloud cover should help keep temps 

mostly in the 50s on both Saturday and Sunday. I've pushed NBM's

day-time temps down pretty considerably on Saturday and a bit 

on Sunday, too due to the persistent stratus anticipated. 



.NEXT WEEK...



A negatively titled trof pushes into the central CONUS by

Monday, driving a cold front through the Dakotas and Nebraska.

40-60% PoPs are justifiable. High temps - near seasonal norms 

from now 'til then - will slip a few degrees behind the chance 

of precip for Tuesday and Wednesday. Both nights bring chances

of frost, especially north. 



Drier conditions build in behind the departing wave as ridging

is expected to develop for day 8 and beyond. (No raincoats

needed for Halloween.) The CPC's mid- range outlooks bolster 

this claim with odds leaning toward dry and warm conditions for 

the first week of November.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



MVFR to IFR conditions are in place this evening across the

three terminals, with KLNK expected to see LIFR conditions

develop early in the TAF period around 03z lasting into tomorrow

morning, while KOFK/KOMA drop into IFR conditions due to low

ceilings. Areas of drizzle/mist have been trending both ceilings

and visibilities lower than what short-term models have, so

there is room for subsequent TAFs or amendments to trends to 

the forecast towards worse conditions. Expect some improvement 

around 17z tomorrow at all three sites, but expect ceilings to 

struggle to push higher than FL020 over the next 24 hours with 

KLNK forecast to hold onto MVFR visibilities at best.



&&



.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Nicolaisen

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen

AVIATION...Petersen