FXUS63 KOAX 241736 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1236 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances (30-55%) move into areas south of I-80 late this morning through the afternoon. - Near-normal temperatures will persist through the weekend, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and lows in the mid 40s. - Widespread rain chances (40-60%) return Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Today through Sunday... Water vapor imagery this morning depicts a mid-level low moving into western KS/OK. The approaching system is spreading increasing cloud cove from south to north, with cloud bases expected to lower through the day. Ahead of the system, southeasterly low-level flow has drawn in a slightly warmer air mass compared to previous mornings. Early morning lows are expected to remain in the mid-40s south of Interstate-80 where cloud cover is providing some insulation, dropping into the mid 30s across northeast NE and western IA where skies remain clearer. Patchy frost will be possible in these areas. The expanding cloud cover will limit daytime heating, with highs topping out in the upper 50s to low 60s. At the surface, a low associated with the mid-level system will drift east across central Kansas today. Precipitation coverage will increase ahead of this feature, with most of the activity remaining south of the NE-KS border. However, CAM guidance suggests light rain showers/drizzle will push into southeast NE later this morning into the afternoon. PoPs peak between 30-55%, primarily confined to areas south of Interstate-80, with rainfall totals up to 0.25-0.50" near the NE-KS border. Precipitation chances will gradually diminish through the evening. However, model soundings do indicate an area of fog/light drizzle over east-central Nebraska developing later this evening into the overnight period. As the low slowly tracks east across Kansas into Missouri through the weekend, scattered light showers remain possible on Saturday, mainly across southeast NE and southwest IA, where PoPs peak between 15-30%. Persistent cloud cover will continue, keeping highs in the mid to upper 50s. Similar conditions are expected Sunday, with only a few isolated showers possible (PoPs 15-20%) and highs ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s. Overnight lows through the weekend will generally hold in the mid 40s. Monday and Beyond... Long-range guidance remains in good agreement on a negatively tilted trough moving into the northwestern CONUS early next week. An associated jet streak is expected to advance into the Intermountain West and northern Plains during this period. The system is expected to bring the next opportunity for precipitation to the area. Current PoPs peak between 40-60% Monday and Tuesday, though some uncertainty persists regarding the exact timing of the system. As the trough progresses eastward, it will drive a cold front through the region late Monday into Tuesday, resulting in a modest cooldown. Highs are forecast to take a small dip into the mid to upper 50s, with overnight lows ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s. Precipitation chances are expected to exit the area by Wednesday, with temperatures generally holding steady through the remainder of the work week: highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and lows continuing in the mid 30s to low 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Low clouds at FL015 are moving into the area from the southwest associated with an area of showers along the Kansas/Nebraska state line where some IFR cigs are reported. Those clouds will slowly continue to build north over the evening hours, eventually bringing MVFR cigs to KOMA and IFR cigs to LNK and KOFK. Showers are likely to stay south of all three aerodromes. Patchy fog is expected to develop overnight in central Nebraska and may affect LNK and KOFK. Have kept vis there in the MVFR/VFR categories for now as confidence in dense development is higher farther west. Dense fog may be added in this evening's TAF issuance. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Nicolaisen