FXUS63 KOAX 240349 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1049 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances move into the area Friday morning (20-50% south of I- 80). Around 0.25" of rainfall can be expected around the KS/NE border. - More widespread rainfall comes Monday and into Tuesday (40-60% PoPs) && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 A nice fall afternoon is underway this afternoon as much of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa has warmed into the low 60s with light winds and sunny skies. This is all thanks to the surface high that has slowly made its way east of the area and prompted southerly low- level flow to return on its western periphery. By tonight and into Friday morning, low level flow will continue to advect in higher dewpoints ahead of a mid-level wave moving into central Kansas. Cloud cover moving in from the south overnight and weak WAA should help to keep temperatures from falling much below the upper 30s and low 40s. Cannot rule out some patchy frost across areas of far northeastern NE and central IA where cloud cover may take longer to move in tonight, but not expecting a widespread frost/freeze again like the previous few nights. PoPs begin to increase Friday morning, mainly south of I-80. Most forcing, moisture and lift with the mid-level wave stays across Kansas but some isentropic lift across southeastern Nebraska should be enough to see some scattered to areas of showers Friday morning and afternoon. QPF totals through Saturday are not expected to be much more than 0.25", but NBM probs give a 25-30% chance of 0.5" of accumulations depicting some small chances for higher totals. The mid-level low remains near-stationary over eastern Kansas through Sunday keeping cloudy and cool conditions for the area. Expect highs to not warm much above the mid to upper 50s. By Monday, the next upper level wave enters the northern Plains increasing PoPs again area-wide. Guidance brings the main wave axis and focal point of lift across north-central and central Nebraska with the low level frontal boundaries. Current thinking is that highest PoPs will stay in that area before moving east Monday night into Tuesday morning. That said, there is still a fair degree of variation with how the trough ejects across the Plains the remainder of the week, with the Euro keeping the wave further north than the GFS. Either way, a cold surface high should advect in by Wednesday bringing sunnier conditions, but cooler air from the north. Highs next week will again struggle to warm much above the mid 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 VFR conditions expected overnight with mostly southeasterly winds under 10 kts. MVFR ceilings will push in from the south through the day, likely reaching all sites in the afternoon. Could also see some light showers at LNK, but guidance suggests they should remain south of OMA and OFK. Later in the afternoon IFR ceilings look to work in with some guidance hinting at some fog/drizzle development and reduced visibility. Not confident in said visibility impacts, so did not include mention, but will need to monitor trends. Otherwise, winds will remain southeasterly at 10-12 kts, with perhaps a few gusts of 18-20 kts Friday afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...CA