FXUS63 KOAX 210450 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1150 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs on Saturday will climb into the 90s across much of the area, with current forecast is exceeding record temperatures at several locations. - Very high to extreme fire danger is expected today through Sunday. The strongest combination of very dry air and gusty winds is likely to occur Saturday afternoon into early evening. - Strong winds follow Saturday's heat, with northerly gusts increasing to 35-45 mph Sunday morning before slowly diminishing through the day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Saturday through Sunday... The mid/upper level ridge over the desert southwest continued to inch eastward today, pushing warmer air into the Central Plains. Temperatures soared into the mid 80s this afternoon, shattering records at Omaha, Lincoln, and Norfolk by a solid 4 to 9 degrees. Light winds will prevail into the overnight hours, before increasing out of the southwest Saturday morning. The thermal ridge sitting just to our west will shift east as it broadens and intensifies Saturday, bringing unprecedented heat to the forecast area, for the month of March. Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s tomorrow, breaking not only daily records, but likely becoming the warmest temperatures ever reached in the month of March over eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa. More distressing than the heat will be the potential for Extreme Fire Danger. Forecast soundings continue to depict the potential for excessively dry, hot air aloft to mix down the surface. Minimum relative humidities are expected to drop to 10-15%, with a few locations possibly drying into the single digits. Southwesterly winds are expected to increase ahead of an approaching cold front Saturday afternoon, with gusts up to 20 to 30 mph possible. Although winds may fall just short of traditional Red Flag criteria for most of the area Saturday, recent collaboration with local fire partners reveals that the combination of hot temperatures with excessively dry fuels will be sufficient to produce extreme fire behavior, even with the marginally strong winds. The previously mentioned cold front will plow through the forecast area Saturday night into early Sunday morning, bringing an abrupt northerly wind shift and strong gusts to the region. Gusts as high as 35-45 mph will be possible with the initial frontal passage, dropping slightly to 25-35 mph behind the front Sunday. With the potential for ongoing fires to become even more uncontrollable Saturday night, a Red Flag Warning will remain in effect from 11 AM Saturday to 4 AM Sunday. Cooler air will filter in behind the front, squashing the thermal ridge. Highs on Sunday are forecast to reach the upper 50s and low 60s, still warmer than the low to mid 50s that are typical for this time of year. A few CAMs hint at the potential for sparse showers or sprinkles to develop behind the front. However, these will likely struggle to reach the surface. Monday and Beyond... Northwesterly flow and dry conditions should prevail into early next week. Temperatures will gradually rise from the 50s and 60s on Monday into the 60s and 70s Tuesday. The heat and strong winds crank back up by the middle of next week, as a ridge redevelops over the southwestern CONUS. Highs push back into the 70s and 80s by Wednesday. In similar fashion to the previous weekend, southwesterly winds will increase ahead of an approaching front. With little to no chance for rain in the forecast, fire danger will once again become a concern. Temperatures will dip slightly again behind the passing front, yet above normal temperatures and predominantly dryconditions will likely prevail through the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period. Calm south-southwesterly winds will continue overnight. Winds are expected reach 12 kts during the afternoon, with gusts in the 20-23 kt range. Skies will remain mostly clear, with a few high-level clouds passing by during the late afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 4 AM CDT Sunday for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078- 088>093. IA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 4 AM CDT Sunday for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...Wood