FXUS63 KOAX 190439

AFDOAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

1139 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Above average temperatures continue into Tuesday, though

  temperatures gradually lower through the week. 



- Additional thunderstorms are possible (30% chance) early

  Tuesday for far southeast Nebraska, with a few strong to

  severe storms possible. Primary hazard will be damaging winds

  50-60 mph. 



- Below normal temperatures forecast going into the weekend 

  with rain chances returning starting Thursday night-Friday. 

  Periods of showers and storms possible through the weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025



Partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area this afternoon,

with greater cloud coverage along a stationary frontal boundary

draped along the Platte River. Temperatures this afternoon will

peak in the upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon, with heat

indices south of the stationary front reaching 100-104. To the

north, heat indices are a bit cooler, only in the upper 90s.



The ridge that has been sitting over our area over the weekend

is shifting off to the east as another ridge is starting to

build up to our west over the Four-Corners region. With this,

we'll see a pattern shift this week, bringing in cooler

temperatures going into this weekend. 



This afternoon, we're seeing a shortwave trigger storms out over

the western Plains of Nebraska and eastern Colorado. These will

coalesce into a complex of storms that will progress eastward

along the Kansas-Nebraska state line this evening into the

overnight hours. Models have trended this complex farther south

as the stationary boundary currently bisecting our area gets

pushed southward this evening due to outflow from ongoing

convection over eastern Iowa. This reduces chances for storms 

for areas around Lincoln northward, with the best chances for 

overnight storms now being mainly in far southeast Nebraska. 

Ample elevated instability and marginal shear will likely lead 

to this complex weakening again as it moves into eastern 

Nebraska, but wind gusts of 40-60 mph will still remain possible

as the system arrives. 



We'll continue to see lingering showers across far southeast

Nebraska through the morning hours on Tuesday, wrapping up

around noon. With our area now north of the frontal boundary,

expect the cooling trend to begin with highs still in the mid-

to-upper 80s on Tuesday, but heat indices only in the 90s. 



As the ridge builds up to our west over the western Rockies, we

see a transition to a northwesterly flow regime. This will bring

in cooler, drier air through the end of the week, keeping us dry

through Thursday with highs dropping into the mid-80s on

Wednesday and Thursday.  



A shortwave trough will drop south across our area Thursday

night into Friday bringing our next chance for showers and

storms. Ensemble guidance suggests storm chances will remain

confined to northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa. What we do

start to see going into the weekend, though, is stronger 

northerly flow over the Central Plains, increasing cool-air

advection and bringing shortwaves through. These shortwaves will

bring periods of showers and storms with high temperatures

Saturday around 80, and in the 70s Sunday and Monday. 



The Climate Prediction Center is predicting cooler than normal

temperatures through the 6-10-day and 8-14-day forecasts with

above normal precipitation. This suggests this cooler, active 

pattern may hang around for several days into next week.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025



Confidence has increased in fog development, particularly along

and northeast of a line from KBVN to KOLU to KFET to KOMA. Have

introduce BR for KOFK and KOMA after 11z, with visibilities 

expected to drop to MVFR. Brief reductions to IFR may occur at 

KOMA between 12 and 14z. Visibilities should improve after 15z 

with VFR conditions persisting for the remainder of the TAF 

cycle. Uncertainty remains on whether KLNK may see fog so have 

left mentions out for this issuance, however, expect further 

refinements and future amendments.



A scattered shower or storm may occur at KLNK after 10z, but 

confidence remains well below 50% for inclusion in the TAF at 

this time.



Winds will remain light throughout the period, becoming 

northeasterly at all terminals after 15z. 



&&



.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...McCoy

AVIATION...Castillo