FXUS63 KOAX 070442

AFDOAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

1142 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Late season freezing temperatures are expected in some

  locations tonight and all locations Monday night. 



- Cold front moves through by daybreak Monday with a few clouds.

  Breezy 15-20 mph winds with gusts up to 25 mph are expected

  Monday morning. Winds ease by Monday evening.



- Temperatures warm for Tuesday and Wednesday and again into the

  weekend. PoP chances return late Tuesday into Wednesday

  (15-30%) and again Thursday (15-20%).



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025



Notably warmer temperatures are building into the area today

under mostly sunny skies a result of the surface high sitting 

near the confluence of KS/NE/MO. An accurate surface analysis 

would also draw a cold front near the SD/ND state line. At H5, a

pattern change shows the western CONUS trof starting to phase 

with the closed Hudson low. An amplified ridge building over the

West Coast brings good tidings. 



..MONDAY.



The Dakotan cold front will slip into this CWA's northern tier

of counties just after midnight tonight and will give winds a

boost in both speed and V components (they'll become 

northerly). Expect afternoon gusts of 15-25 mph. Locations 

closer to Sioux City will notice a bigger 24 hour drop (-15F) 

than locations closer to Wichita, KS where little change is 

expected. The front will pass through dry as precipitable water 

and specific humidity are below average (NAEFS). The best lift 

and chances for precip will be well northeast of the area near 

the surface low in Michigan. In fact, only a few clouds are 

expected here. Plenty of sun will remain and skies will be 

mostly clear overnight, allowing for efficient radiational 

cooling. Expect lows in the 20s.



..TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.



The glancing blow of the cold air's impact will last only for a

day as the area will experience a quick rebound for Tuesday 

thanks to continued sunshine and a breezy but warming return 

flow. WAA at H8 begins by midnight Tuesday morning and continues

through the day. Expect highs near 60 with Wednesday's forecast

5-10 degrees higher yet. Confidence on Wednesday's forecast 

isn't great as it depends on the timing and placement of a 

shortwave that will eject out of the Rockies. NBM currently 

suggests a 15-30% chance of PoPs and that seems reasonable with

an opportunity for showers both on the warm front Tuesday night

and the cold front on Wednesday. The most likely scenario, 

however, will be mostly dry conditions with notable wind shifts.





..LONGER TERM FORECAST.



Behind the ejecting wave on Wednesday afternoon, the upper flow

will be temporarily zonal, but as the departing shortwave 

deepens and digs southeast, the pattern amplifies. The ridge is 

reestablished on the West Coast and temperatures will begin to 

rebound here by Friday. Early indications suggest temps easily 

managing 70s by the weekend. NBM indicates a 30% or higher 

probability of hitting 80F in eastern Nebraska on Saturday and 

50% chance or higher on Sunday the 13th. Omaha has only managed

80F three times so far this year. If it brings the same number 

of 80 degree days as the average over the past twenty years, 

April 2025 would bring three and a half 80 degree days on its 

own.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025



VFR conditions expected through the period with mostly clear

skies. Light westerly to southwesterly winds early in the 

period will become northerly at around 10 to 12 kts. Can't 

completely rule out a few gusts to 20 kts, mainly during the 

morning hours Monday. Winds become lighter and more easterly to 

southeasterly toward the very end of the period.



&&



.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen

AVIATION...CA