FXUS63 KOAX 060545

AFDOAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

1245 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Cooler temperatures are expected through Wednesday, with 

  frost possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings across 

  northeast Nebraska.



- A low chance (10-30%) of showers is expected Friday morning. 



- High temperatures will gradually rise back into the 70s to

  near 80 by the end of the work week, with additional rain 

  chances (30-60%) Saturday into Sunday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1102 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



A reinforcing shortwave trough is sinking south over the

northern Great Plains this evening. This feature within the

broader longwave trough is helping to filter additional cool 

and dry air into the region. Rain chances should continue to 

move well south and east out of the region tonight. Surface high

pressure builds into the area by morning, allowing for calm 

winds. Temperatures are likely to fall to near freezing across 

much of the area. That being said, lingering mid to high level 

clouds should limit frost development for most areas outside of 

areas near the South Dakota border. The cooler temperatures 

continue into Wednesday afternoon with another day of 

temperatures in the 50s across the area. On the bright side, 

cloud cover should gradually decrease with peaks of sun by the 

afternoon. Clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the 

30s once again Thursday morning, but an increasing southwest 

wind should keep frost at bay for most. Patchy fog in low-lying 

areas that are sheltered from the wind may still be possible.



Temperatures are forecast to warm through the end of the work

week as modest upper-level ridging takes over. Temperatures rise

into the lower 70s on Thursday before approaching 80 by Friday.

It should be dry for much of the remainder of the work week, 

but a weak disturbance during the morning on Friday may be 

enough to squeeze out a low (10-30%) chance of showers. Our next

good chance of rain doesn't take shape until the weekend. 

Saturday into Sunday sees an area of low pressure take shape 

south of the area as a shortwave trough moves out into the Great

Plains. We are likely to be on the northern edge of the better 

moisture. That being said, shower and thunderstorm (30-60%) 

chances are anticipated for much of the area. The best chance of

measurable precipitation will be across southeast Nebraska and 

southwest Iowa, closer to the developing low pressure system. A 

cool-down arrives behind this system on Sunday before 

temperatures begin to increase again early next week.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Northerly winds are slowing and will end up near 4 knots to calm

conditions overnight. Mid-morning on Wednesday, they'll pick up

the pace near 10 knots with occasional gusts of up to 20 knots.

Near sunset, the winds will relax again, with northwesterly

winds running near 5 knots. 



VFR conditions will persist. 



&&



.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Chehak

AVIATION...Nicolaisen