FXUS63 KOAX 021714 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1114 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog this morning, mainly near and west of a line from Norfolk to Lincoln. Visibility could drop below 1/2 mile with a few slick spots. - Periodic, low precipitation chances (15-30%) tonight through early Wednesday. A wintry mix could fall at times, but is currently favored to remain light with little to no impact. - Mild temperatures stick around this week, with highs in the 30s and 40s through Wednesday and 40s and 50s from Thursday through Sunday. These warmer temperatures could allow river ice to break up and move, increasing the risk of ice jams. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Some lingering low clouds early this morning were slowly, but surely pushing east with surface and mid-level ridging starting to lead to mostly clear skies and light winds across most of eastern NE as of 2 AM. As a result, some patchy fog was starting to develop and become visible via satellite, with a few observation sites reporting at least small visibility reductions. That said, latest short term guidance continues to trend toward less fog development into the early morning hours, with HREF suggesting only spotty 20-40% chances of getting under 1/2 mile visibility. However, anything that does develop could lead to some patchy slick spots on roads as temperatures are well below freezing where we have cleared out. Otherwise, fog should dissipate by mid-morning though some lingering low clouds and incoming mid and high clouds will keep us cooler than what we saw yesterday, with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s. For tonight through Wednesday, guidance continues to suggest we'll have some precip chances as a few bits of shortwave energy pass through/near the area. The first is currently spinning over eastern MT and should approach the SD/NE border by this evening with light precip not far behind. Model soundings suggest snow and/or freezing drizzle with eventual loss of in- cloud ice. Soundings also show we may go in and out of saturation, so anything that does fall is expected to be quite light and for the most part, unimpactful (10- 20% chance of a dusting of snow/glaze of ice). Precip should come to an end Tuesday morning with afternoon temperatures expected to top out in the 30s area-wide. The second wave and associated precip look to arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday, though the strongest forcing and higher precip chances look to remain just to our west. Still, many solutions still clip our area with some light precip, giving us a 15-30% chance. Forecast thermodynamic profiles look similar to those of tonight with in-cloud ice coming and going and leading to some snow and/or freezing drizzle. Once again, near-surface levels may struggle to saturate, so anything that does fall in our area should be light with relatively no impact. Any precip should exit by late Wednesday morning with temperatures maybe a few degrees warmer than those on Tuesday. By Thursday, upper level ridging over the western CONUS will start to edge a little farther east with low level westerly flow helping to usher in much warmer temperatures. Expect highs in the 50s for most of the area. By Friday morning, a surface cold front will start to push into the area (guidance currently favors a dry passage), though temperatures look to remain mild into the weekend, with highs remaining in the 40s to lower 50s. These continued warmer temperatures could start to lead to some ice breakup and movement in area rivers, increasing the threat of ice jams. However, night time lows look to remain below freezing most nights, which should slow things down a little bit. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1112 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 A weather disturbance over the Dakotas this morning will move through the area tonight into Tuesday morning, supporting widely scattered, light, winter precipitation and MVFR to potentially IFR ceilings. VFR conditions will prevail today with the onset of MVFR ceilings expected in the 03/07-03/11z time frame. A period of IFR ceilings is most probable at KOFK Tuesday morning. Given the expected spotty nature of the light precipitation, confidence in occurrence at the terminal locations is too low to include in the forecast. Light southeast winds today switch to north tonight. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...Mead