FXUS63 KMQT 250720 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 320 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather with above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week. No significantly impactful weather expected over the next seven days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Early morning GOES water vapor imagery highlights a shortwave trough descending southeast over Wisconsin with widespread troughing over eastern Canada. RAP analysis has high pressure around 1026 mb extending across the Great Lakes. Looking upstream, a mid level ridge is moving out over the Northern Plains with a trough to the southwest tracking toward Texas; troughing is beginning to dig into the Pacific Northwest. Despite the close proximity of the shortwave to the UP, the radar is fairly quiet and the antecedent dry airmass will keep the weather dry as mid to high clouds drift overhead. Temps early this morning will hold in the 20s in the interior, upper 20s to low 30s near Lake Michigan and 30s near Lake Superior. High pressure strengthens to ~1030 mb today over the Great Lakes and Ontario as the mid level ridge begins to build just west of the UP in the wake of the shortwave. As a result of warm air advection, 850mb temps rise to ~1-2C and surface temps warm back above normal in the upper 40s to mid 50s under partly cloudy skies; clearing is expected by this evening. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s to low 40s, coldest interior central. Southerly flow continues to warm temps through Sunday, with highs in the 50s and similar lows Sunday night. Dry weather persists under the ridging overhead and surface high pressure extending from eastern Canada. This holds through Monday as a mid level closed high forms over Ontario and the troughing over the northwestern CONUS/Canadian Prairie begins to dig into the Plains. From this point onward, forecast confidence drops off as model guidance unfortunately continues to struggle resolving the pattern progression. A downstream wave/closed low over New England on Tuesday may retrograde over the Great Lakes and Ontario through the remainder of the work week as the ECMWF/Canadian indicate, pinching the closed high over northern Quebec/Ontario. This further is complicated by another developing closed low over the Mid/Lower- Mississippi Valley. A resulting surface low well to the south then would lift along the east coast...but also could be influenced by remnants of Tropical Storm Melissa. This first solution is a very convoluted pattern for mostly dry weather forecast through Thursday night outside low (15-25% chance) potential for transient light lake effect PoPs starting Tuesday night (QPF struggling to reach a few hundreths). The other option is the more progressive solution presented in the GFS: A positively tilted ridge builds over the central CONUS, pushing everything to the east of the CWA and supporting reinforced surface high pressure and a longer dry pattern into next weekend. Cluster analysis shows that even each individual ensemble is split on the solution, but less than half of the members (~40% of the grand ensemble) support the drier solution. All this to say: impactful weather likely (75% chance) will hold off until next weekend or even early next week. Near to slightly above normal temps are forecast next week with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s and lows in the upper 20s to low 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 134 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 VFR will be the predominant flight category for the duration of the TAF period with high pressure and drier air in place. Meanwhile, expect a wind shift to the southwest at SAW this afternoon, but winds will be under 10 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 High pressure across Lake Superior largely keeps southerly winds below 20 kts through at least Sunday morning. Widespread southeast winds of 10-20 kts are expected across the lake Sunday afternoon through Tuesday, but gusts up to around 25 kts are possible Sunday night into Monday (15-30% chance) over the central third of the lake. Those chances increase to 25-50% for Monday and Monday night over the central and east. Southeast winds back east by Wednesday, settling below 20 kts. Forecast confidence decreases mid to late week, but latest probabilities generally depict a 20-40% chance for winds exceeding 20 kt for Wednesday and Thursday with probabilities gradually increasing into the weekend. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...77